Russia's entrenched military commitment in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 1.2 million and depleted Soviet-era stockpiles, has constrained its capacity for new invasions, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability against Russia invading another country in 2026. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Moscow's 2026 plans focus on intensified offensives in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa—within Ukraine—alongside recruiting 409,000 additional troops, as stated by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi in late March. No verified diplomatic or military escalations target neighbors like Moldova, the Baltics, or Georgia; instead, analyses highlight Russia's pivot to hybrid warfare amid NATO deterrence and Western sanctions. Odds could shift with a Ukraine breakthrough freeing resources or unexpected provocations, though structural barriers persist through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$52,089 交易量
$52,089 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$52,089 交易量
$52,089 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's entrenched military commitment in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 1.2 million and depleted Soviet-era stockpiles, has constrained its capacity for new invasions, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability against Russia invading another country in 2026. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Moscow's 2026 plans focus on intensified offensives in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa—within Ukraine—alongside recruiting 409,000 additional troops, as stated by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi in late March. No verified diplomatic or military escalations target neighbors like Moldova, the Baltics, or Georgia; instead, analyses highlight Russia's pivot to hybrid warfare amid NATO deterrence and Western sanctions. Odds could shift with a Ukraine breakthrough freeing resources or unexpected provocations, though structural barriers persist through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$52,089結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's entrenched military commitment in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 1.2 million and depleted Soviet-era stockpiles, has constrained its capacity for new invasions, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability against Russia invading another country in 2026. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Moscow's 2026 plans focus on intensified offensives in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa—within Ukraine—alongside recruiting 409,000 additional troops, as stated by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi in late March. No verified diplomatic or military escalations target neighbors like Moldova, the Baltics, or Georgia; instead, analyses highlight Russia's pivot to hybrid warfare amid NATO deterrence and Western sanctions. Odds could shift with a Ukraine breakthrough freeing resources or unexpected provocations, though structural barriers persist through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$52,089結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's entrenched military commitment in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 1.2 million and depleted Soviet-era stockpiles, has constrained its capacity for new invasions, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability against Russia invading another country in 2026. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Moscow's 2026 plans focus on intensified offensives in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and eyeing Odesa—within Ukraine—alongside recruiting 409,000 additional troops, as stated by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi in late March. No verified diplomatic or military escalations target neighbors like Moldova, the Baltics, or Georgia; instead, analyses highlight Russia's pivot to hybrid warfare amid NATO deterrence and Western sanctions. Odds could shift with a Ukraine breakthrough freeing resources or unexpected provocations, though structural barriers persist through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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