**Trader consensus on the low probability of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 stems from repeated administration clarifications following President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states.** Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly specified that planned activities involve non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and component evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site—none of which produce a nuclear chain reaction or yield. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, which officials and lab directors continue to certify as sufficient for stockpile confidence. Allegations of low-yield activity by China or Russia remain disputed, and any full-yield test would face significant technical, diplomatic, and verification barriers given existing detection regimes. No confirmed preparations for explosive testing have advanced since the initial statements, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$796,977 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
<1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$796,977 交易量
2026年9月30日
$59,121 交易量
<1%
2026年12月31日
$77,045 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on the low probability of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 stems from repeated administration clarifications following President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states.** Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly specified that planned activities involve non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and component evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site—none of which produce a nuclear chain reaction or yield. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, which officials and lab directors continue to certify as sufficient for stockpile confidence. Allegations of low-yield activity by China or Russia remain disputed, and any full-yield test would face significant technical, diplomatic, and verification barriers given existing detection regimes. No confirmed preparations for explosive testing have advanced since the initial statements, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$796,977結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on the low probability of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 stems from repeated administration clarifications following President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states.** Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly specified that planned activities involve non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and component evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site—none of which produce a nuclear chain reaction or yield. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, which officials and lab directors continue to certify as sufficient for stockpile confidence. Allegations of low-yield activity by China or Russia remain disputed, and any full-yield test would face significant technical, diplomatic, and verification barriers given existing detection regimes. No confirmed preparations for explosive testing have advanced since the initial statements, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$796,977結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET**Trader consensus on the low probability of a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 stems from repeated administration clarifications following President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other states.** Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials quickly specified that planned activities involve non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and component evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site—none of which produce a nuclear chain reaction or yield. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, which officials and lab directors continue to certify as sufficient for stockpile confidence. Allegations of low-yield activity by China or Russia remain disputed, and any full-yield test would face significant technical, diplomatic, and verification barriers given existing detection regimes. No confirmed preparations for explosive testing have advanced since the initial statements, keeping implied probabilities low across near-term resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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