The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities would involve non-explosive system and component testing only. No explosive nuclear tests have occurred since, New START has expired without a replacement, and ongoing policy reviews focus on modernization funding and delivery system trials rather than yield-producing detonations. With low probabilities priced into near-term resolution dates through late 2026, traders appear to view resumption as unlikely absent major new escalatory developments or shifts in administration policy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$795,936 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,936 交易量
2026年9月30日
$58,194 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,930 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities would involve non-explosive system and component testing only. No explosive nuclear tests have occurred since, New START has expired without a replacement, and ongoing policy reviews focus on modernization funding and delivery system trials rather than yield-producing detonations. With low probabilities priced into near-term resolution dates through late 2026, traders appear to view resumption as unlikely absent major new escalatory developments or shifts in administration policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,936結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities would involve non-explosive system and component testing only. No explosive nuclear tests have occurred since, New START has expired without a replacement, and ongoing policy reviews focus on modernization funding and delivery system trials rather than yield-producing detonations. With low probabilities priced into near-term resolution dates through late 2026, traders appear to view resumption as unlikely absent major new escalatory developments or shifts in administration policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,936結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThe U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with other nations initially raised market attention, but Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities would involve non-explosive system and component testing only. No explosive nuclear tests have occurred since, New START has expired without a replacement, and ongoing policy reviews focus on modernization funding and delivery system trials rather than yield-producing detonations. With low probabilities priced into near-term resolution dates through late 2026, traders appear to view resumption as unlikely absent major new escalatory developments or shifts in administration policy.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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