The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and advanced diagnostics to certify warhead reliability without detonations. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare resumption—citing alleged Russian and Chinese low-yield tests—sparked debate, but experts project a 24-36 month timeline for readiness, pushing any potential test past 2028. New START's February 2026 expiration heightened tensions, yet Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Rosen secured nominee commitments against resumption, amid FY2026 budget oversight and opposition to breaking the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) zero-yield standard. No test is scheduled.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$665,078 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
9%
$665,078 交易量
2026年6月30日
$39,059 交易量
2%
2026年9月30日
$5,584 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$10,216 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and advanced diagnostics to certify warhead reliability without detonations. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare resumption—citing alleged Russian and Chinese low-yield tests—sparked debate, but experts project a 24-36 month timeline for readiness, pushing any potential test past 2028. New START's February 2026 expiration heightened tensions, yet Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Rosen secured nominee commitments against resumption, amid FY2026 budget oversight and opposition to breaking the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) zero-yield standard. No test is scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$665,078結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and advanced diagnostics to certify warhead reliability without detonations. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare resumption—citing alleged Russian and Chinese low-yield tests—sparked debate, but experts project a 24-36 month timeline for readiness, pushing any potential test past 2028. New START's February 2026 expiration heightened tensions, yet Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Rosen secured nominee commitments against resumption, amid FY2026 budget oversight and opposition to breaking the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) zero-yield standard. No test is scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$665,078結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has upheld its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and advanced diagnostics to certify warhead reliability without detonations. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare resumption—citing alleged Russian and Chinese low-yield tests—sparked debate, but experts project a 24-36 month timeline for readiness, pushing any potential test past 2028. New START's February 2026 expiration heightened tensions, yet Nevada lawmakers like Sen. Rosen secured nominee commitments against resumption, amid FY2026 budget oversight and opposition to breaking the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) zero-yield standard. No test is scheduled.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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