President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare for nuclear weapons testing in response to advances by Russia and China remains the primary driver of trader attention. The United States last conducted an explosive nuclear test in 1992 and has maintained a moratorium since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration responsible for stockpile stewardship through simulations and subcritical experiments. Actual underground explosive testing would require substantial preparation time, estimated at up to 36 months under current readiness plans, alongside potential international diplomatic and treaty implications. No such test has occurred in the ensuing months, and warnings from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization have highlighted risks of escalation. Market pricing reflects these technical, procedural, and geopolitical constraints on near-term resumption.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$667,461 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$667,461 交易量
2026年6月30日
$40,114 交易量
2%
2026年9月30日
$6,656 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,472 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare for nuclear weapons testing in response to advances by Russia and China remains the primary driver of trader attention. The United States last conducted an explosive nuclear test in 1992 and has maintained a moratorium since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration responsible for stockpile stewardship through simulations and subcritical experiments. Actual underground explosive testing would require substantial preparation time, estimated at up to 36 months under current readiness plans, alongside potential international diplomatic and treaty implications. No such test has occurred in the ensuing months, and warnings from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization have highlighted risks of escalation. Market pricing reflects these technical, procedural, and geopolitical constraints on near-term resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$667,461結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare for nuclear weapons testing in response to advances by Russia and China remains the primary driver of trader attention. The United States last conducted an explosive nuclear test in 1992 and has maintained a moratorium since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration responsible for stockpile stewardship through simulations and subcritical experiments. Actual underground explosive testing would require substantial preparation time, estimated at up to 36 months under current readiness plans, alongside potential international diplomatic and treaty implications. No such test has occurred in the ensuing months, and warnings from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization have highlighted risks of escalation. Market pricing reflects these technical, procedural, and geopolitical constraints on near-term resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$667,461結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare for nuclear weapons testing in response to advances by Russia and China remains the primary driver of trader attention. The United States last conducted an explosive nuclear test in 1992 and has maintained a moratorium since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration responsible for stockpile stewardship through simulations and subcritical experiments. Actual underground explosive testing would require substantial preparation time, estimated at up to 36 months under current readiness plans, alongside potential international diplomatic and treaty implications. No such test has occurred in the ensuing months, and warnings from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization have highlighted risks of escalation. Market pricing reflects these technical, procedural, and geopolitical constraints on near-term resumption.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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