President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$671,841 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
<1%
2026年9月30日
3%
2026年12月31日
9%
$671,841 交易量
2026年6月30日
$43,482 交易量
<1%
2026年9月30日
$7,287 交易量
3%
2026年12月31日
$10,852 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$671,841結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$671,841結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions