Russia's rejection of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal through continued drone and Shahed attacks over the past 48 hours has reinforced trader skepticism, stalling US-mediated peace negotiations and driving the 73.5% "No" probability for a deal before 2027. Despite earlier March talks in Florida and Zelenskyy's outreach to US negotiators, Kremlin demands for territorial concessions and security vetoes remain irreconcilable with Kyiv's insistence on full withdrawal, amid ongoing frontline escalations like Russian advances in Luhansk and Sumy regions. With nine months left, traders see slim chances of diplomatic breakthrough before US midterms shift priorities, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing persistent military stalemate over imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$189,097 交易量
$189,097 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$189,097 交易量
$189,097 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's rejection of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal through continued drone and Shahed attacks over the past 48 hours has reinforced trader skepticism, stalling US-mediated peace negotiations and driving the 73.5% "No" probability for a deal before 2027. Despite earlier March talks in Florida and Zelenskyy's outreach to US negotiators, Kremlin demands for territorial concessions and security vetoes remain irreconcilable with Kyiv's insistence on full withdrawal, amid ongoing frontline escalations like Russian advances in Luhansk and Sumy regions. With nine months left, traders see slim chances of diplomatic breakthrough before US midterms shift priorities, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing persistent military stalemate over imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$189,097結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's rejection of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal through continued drone and Shahed attacks over the past 48 hours has reinforced trader skepticism, stalling US-mediated peace negotiations and driving the 73.5% "No" probability for a deal before 2027. Despite earlier March talks in Florida and Zelenskyy's outreach to US negotiators, Kremlin demands for territorial concessions and security vetoes remain irreconcilable with Kyiv's insistence on full withdrawal, amid ongoing frontline escalations like Russian advances in Luhansk and Sumy regions. With nine months left, traders see slim chances of diplomatic breakthrough before US midterms shift priorities, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing persistent military stalemate over imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$189,097結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's rejection of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal through continued drone and Shahed attacks over the past 48 hours has reinforced trader skepticism, stalling US-mediated peace negotiations and driving the 73.5% "No" probability for a deal before 2027. Despite earlier March talks in Florida and Zelenskyy's outreach to US negotiators, Kremlin demands for territorial concessions and security vetoes remain irreconcilable with Kyiv's insistence on full withdrawal, amid ongoing frontline escalations like Russian advances in Luhansk and Sumy regions. With nine months left, traders see slim chances of diplomatic breakthrough before US midterms shift priorities, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in pricing persistent military stalemate over imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions