Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in late March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including uranium enrichment facilities at Isfahan, plutonium production sites, and ballistic missile plants, severely degrading capabilities for weaponization or testing. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases post-strikes, no resumption of enrichment activities, and no evidence of a coordinated weapons program, despite Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium. Amid ongoing conflict escalation, Iranian hardliners have called for NPT withdrawal, but official statements deny pursuit of nuclear weapons. Traders price a test before 2027 at under 10%, reflecting destroyed infrastructure and diplomatic pressures as major barriers, though covert advances or regime shifts could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$146,722 交易量
$146,722 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$146,722 交易量
$146,722 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in late March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including uranium enrichment facilities at Isfahan, plutonium production sites, and ballistic missile plants, severely degrading capabilities for weaponization or testing. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases post-strikes, no resumption of enrichment activities, and no evidence of a coordinated weapons program, despite Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium. Amid ongoing conflict escalation, Iranian hardliners have called for NPT withdrawal, but official statements deny pursuit of nuclear weapons. Traders price a test before 2027 at under 10%, reflecting destroyed infrastructure and diplomatic pressures as major barriers, though covert advances or regime shifts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$146,722結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in late March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including uranium enrichment facilities at Isfahan, plutonium production sites, and ballistic missile plants, severely degrading capabilities for weaponization or testing. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases post-strikes, no resumption of enrichment activities, and no evidence of a coordinated weapons program, despite Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium. Amid ongoing conflict escalation, Iranian hardliners have called for NPT withdrawal, but official statements deny pursuit of nuclear weapons. Traders price a test before 2027 at under 10%, reflecting destroyed infrastructure and diplomatic pressures as major barriers, though covert advances or regime shifts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$146,722結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in late March 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including uranium enrichment facilities at Isfahan, plutonium production sites, and ballistic missile plants, severely degrading capabilities for weaponization or testing. IAEA reports confirm no radiation increases post-strikes, no resumption of enrichment activities, and no evidence of a coordinated weapons program, despite Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium. Amid ongoing conflict escalation, Iranian hardliners have called for NPT withdrawal, but official statements deny pursuit of nuclear weapons. Traders price a test before 2027 at under 10%, reflecting destroyed infrastructure and diplomatic pressures as major barriers, though covert advances or regime shifts could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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