Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving Yars ICBMs in Siberia, practicing camouflage and simulated enemy responses amid ongoing Ukraine tensions and the February 5 expiration of the New START treaty, which ended verified limits on deployed warheads. Despite revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and periodic rhetoric on resuming tests, no intentional nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, upholding a de facto global moratorium. Trader consensus prices low probabilities (2-14%) across 2026 dates, reflecting absence of concrete preparations or announcements, with unconfirmed rumors of covert Arctic activity dismissed by the Kremlin. Escalation in Ukraine or stalled arms talks could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,325,014 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
September 30, 2026
11%
2026年12月31日
10%
$1,325,014 交易量
2026年6月30日
$100 交易量
2%
September 30, 2026
$60 交易量
11%
2026年12月31日
$281 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving Yars ICBMs in Siberia, practicing camouflage and simulated enemy responses amid ongoing Ukraine tensions and the February 5 expiration of the New START treaty, which ended verified limits on deployed warheads. Despite revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and periodic rhetoric on resuming tests, no intentional nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, upholding a de facto global moratorium. Trader consensus prices low probabilities (2-14%) across 2026 dates, reflecting absence of concrete preparations or announcements, with unconfirmed rumors of covert Arctic activity dismissed by the Kremlin. Escalation in Ukraine or stalled arms talks could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$1,325,014結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving Yars ICBMs in Siberia, practicing camouflage and simulated enemy responses amid ongoing Ukraine tensions and the February 5 expiration of the New START treaty, which ended verified limits on deployed warheads. Despite revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and periodic rhetoric on resuming tests, no intentional nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, upholding a de facto global moratorium. Trader consensus prices low probabilities (2-14%) across 2026 dates, reflecting absence of concrete preparations or announcements, with unconfirmed rumors of covert Arctic activity dismissed by the Kremlin. Escalation in Ukraine or stalled arms talks could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,325,014結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving Yars ICBMs in Siberia, practicing camouflage and simulated enemy responses amid ongoing Ukraine tensions and the February 5 expiration of the New START treaty, which ended verified limits on deployed warheads. Despite revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and periodic rhetoric on resuming tests, no intentional nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, upholding a de facto global moratorium. Trader consensus prices low probabilities (2-14%) across 2026 dates, reflecting absence of concrete preparations or announcements, with unconfirmed rumors of covert Arctic activity dismissed by the Kremlin. Escalation in Ukraine or stalled arms talks could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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