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政治·特朗普

俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？

$1,325,588 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,325,588 交易量

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$346 交易量

3%

September 30, 2026

$167 交易量

8%

2026年12月31日

$501 交易量

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia on April 2, practicing deployment amid the recent completion of its withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, removing a key legal barrier to explosive testing. The New START arms control treaty expired February 5 without extension, heightening tensions over nuclear modernization and deployments. No full-scale nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, with Moscow emphasizing subcritical tests and simulations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty, driven by Ukraine conflict escalation signals, official announcements from Putin or the Defense Ministry, and potential seismic detections at Novaya Zemlya; U.S.-Russia diplomatic overtures remain a wildcard before any resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,325,588
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces conducted drills with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia on April 2, practicing deployment amid the recent completion of its withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, removing a key legal barrier to explosive testing. The New START arms control treaty expired February 5 without extension, heightening tensions over nuclear modernization and deployments. No full-scale nuclear detonation has occurred since 1990, with Moscow emphasizing subcritical tests and simulations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty, driven by Ukraine conflict escalation signals, official announcements from Putin or the Defense Ministry, and potential seismic detections at Novaya Zemlya; U.S.-Russia diplomatic overtures remain a wildcard before any resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,325,588
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 12%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 12¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？" is "2026年12月31日" at 12%, meaning the market assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "俄羅斯的核試驗由… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.