Market icon
世界·庫皮揚斯克

俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？

Market icon
世界·庫皮揚斯克

俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？

$1,234,208 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$1,234,208 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$28,397 交易量

7%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Russian forces continue offensive operations around Kupiansk but made no confirmed advances into the city itself as of April 2 per ISW assessments, with attacks targeting areas within Kupiansk and southeast near Kurylivka, Novoosynove, and Pishchane amid seven clashes in the sector over the past 24 hours. Marginal Russian gains in Pishchane village—14 km southeast and dubbed a "grey zone" by Ukrainian spokesmen—represent infiltration attempts from the east, but Ukrainian forces maintain control of the city center and northern outskirts while contesting positions. Having missed a February 2026 capture deadline, slow progress against resilient defenses and logistical challenges along the Oskil River explain trader consensus pricing full municipal control (per ISW maps) below 10% even by June 30, though escalated assaults or Ukrainian setbacks could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
交易量
$1,234,208
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Russian forces continue offensive operations around Kupiansk but made no confirmed advances into the city itself as of April 2 per ISW assessments, with attacks targeting areas within Kupiansk and southeast near Kurylivka, Novoosynove, and Pishchane amid seven clashes in the sector over the past 24 hours. Marginal Russian gains in Pishchane village—14 km southeast and dubbed a "grey zone" by Ukrainian spokesmen—represent infiltration attempts from the east, but Ukrainian forces maintain control of the city center and northern outskirts while contesting positions. Having missed a February 2026 capture deadline, slow progress against resilient defenses and logistical challenges along the Oskil River explain trader consensus pricing full municipal control (per ISW maps) below 10% even by June 30, though escalated assaults or Ukrainian setbacks could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
交易量
$1,234,208
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月30日" at 7%, followed by "11月30日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？" is "6月30日" at just 7%, with "11月30日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "俄羅斯會在…前佔領整個庫皮揚斯克嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.