Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations lacking breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions and alliance neutrality. In late 2025, Kyiv floated dropping NATO aspirations for bilateral security guarantees from the US and Europe, but US experts deemed it insufficient to alter Moscow's stance, and no deal materialized. More recently, on March 22, 2026, US-Ukraine talks in Florida focused on war-ending paths without NATO-specific pledges, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that membership remains off the table absent full territorial control. Ukraine pivots toward EU accession by 2027 as an economic safeguard, underscoring reluctance for a binding NATO delay amid ongoing conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$78,425 交易量
$78,425 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$78,425 交易量
$78,425 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations lacking breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions and alliance neutrality. In late 2025, Kyiv floated dropping NATO aspirations for bilateral security guarantees from the US and Europe, but US experts deemed it insufficient to alter Moscow's stance, and no deal materialized. More recently, on March 22, 2026, US-Ukraine talks in Florida focused on war-ending paths without NATO-specific pledges, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that membership remains off the table absent full territorial control. Ukraine pivots toward EU accession by 2027 as an economic safeguard, underscoring reluctance for a binding NATO delay amid ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$78,425結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations lacking breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions and alliance neutrality. In late 2025, Kyiv floated dropping NATO aspirations for bilateral security guarantees from the US and Europe, but US experts deemed it insufficient to alter Moscow's stance, and no deal materialized. More recently, on March 22, 2026, US-Ukraine talks in Florida focused on war-ending paths without NATO-specific pledges, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that membership remains off the table absent full territorial control. Ukraine pivots toward EU accession by 2027 as an economic safeguard, underscoring reluctance for a binding NATO delay amid ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$78,425結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to forgo NATO membership before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations lacking breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions and alliance neutrality. In late 2025, Kyiv floated dropping NATO aspirations for bilateral security guarantees from the US and Europe, but US experts deemed it insufficient to alter Moscow's stance, and no deal materialized. More recently, on March 22, 2026, US-Ukraine talks in Florida focused on war-ending paths without NATO-specific pledges, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that membership remains off the table absent full territorial control. Ukraine pivots toward EU accession by 2027 as an economic safeguard, underscoring reluctance for a binding NATO delay amid ongoing conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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