Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% to win the most seats in Quebec's October 2026 general election, driven by its commanding 41% support among francophone voters and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where it leads PLQ by 22 points per the latest Léger poll. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has surged to 33.5% implied probability following its tie with PQ at 33% voting intentions—the first since November 2023—buoyed by new leader Charles Milliard's gains and the CAQ's collapse to 9% province-wide, projecting zero seats. CAQ trails at 8% amid Premier Legault's unpopularity, while PCQ, QS, and PVQ remain marginal despite PCQ's 15% vote share, hampered by vote inefficiency in first-past-the-post ridings. With six months until the vote, regional dynamics and turnout among francophones will be pivotal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於魁北克黨 57%
魁北克自由黨 34%
魁北克未來聯盟(CAQ) 8%
魁北克保守黨 <1%
$382,154 交易量
$382,154 交易量

魁北克黨
57%

魁北克自由黨
34%

魁北克未來聯盟(CAQ)
8%

魁北克保守黨
1%

魁團
<1%

魁北克綠黨
<1%
魁北克黨 57%
魁北克自由黨 34%
魁北克未來聯盟(CAQ) 8%
魁北克保守黨 <1%
$382,154 交易量
$382,154 交易量

魁北克黨
57%

魁北克自由黨
34%

魁北克未來聯盟(CAQ)
8%

魁北克保守黨
1%

魁團
<1%

魁北克綠黨
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市場開放時間: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% to win the most seats in Quebec's October 2026 general election, driven by its commanding 41% support among francophone voters and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where it leads PLQ by 22 points per the latest Léger poll. The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has surged to 33.5% implied probability following its tie with PQ at 33% voting intentions—the first since November 2023—buoyed by new leader Charles Milliard's gains and the CAQ's collapse to 9% province-wide, projecting zero seats. CAQ trails at 8% amid Premier Legault's unpopularity, while PCQ, QS, and PVQ remain marginal despite PCQ's 15% vote share, hampered by vote inefficiency in first-past-the-post ridings. With six months until the vote, regional dynamics and turnout among francophones will be pivotal.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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