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政治·世界選舉

下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位

Market icon
政治·世界選舉

下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位

巴西自由黨（PL） 76%

巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 17.0%

UNIÃO 8.7%

PSD 4.2%

Polymarket
最新

巴西自由黨（PL） 76%

巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 17.0%

UNIÃO 8.7%

PSD 4.2%

Polymarket
最新
Market icon

巴西自由黨（PL）

$2,009 交易量

76%

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巴西民主運動黨（MDB）

$0 交易量

11%

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UNIÃO

$0 交易量

9%

Market icon

PSD

$0 交易量

4%

Market icon

巴西社會民主黨（PSDB）

$0 交易量

3%

Market icon

巴西社會黨（PSB）

$0 交易量

7%

Market icon

進步黨（PP）

$0 交易量

11%

Market icon

巴西工人黨（PT）

$0 交易量

7%

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PDT

$3,755 交易量

1%

Market icon

NOVO

$0 交易量

10%

Market icon

共和黨

$0 交易量

9%

Market icon

PODEMOS

$579 交易量

9%

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 75.5% implied probability to hold the most seats after the October 4, 2026, Brazilian Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats amid high turnover. PL, already the largest bloc with 15 senators, benefits from opposition leads in 21 of recent Real Time Big Data state polls (January 2026 analysis), strong regional dominance outside the Northeast, and net gains from the recent party affiliation window. Surging presidential polls for PL's Flávio Bolsonaro—tying Lula at 43% in March Datafolha—provide coattails effect, while Centrão rivals like MDB (10 leaving) and PSD (11 leaving) face heavy losses, positioning MDB and PP as distant challengers at 11% and 10.7%. State races remain fluid with key candidates like Styvenson Valentim and Fernando Haddad in contention.

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.

This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.

All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
交易量
$6,343
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 75.5% implied probability to hold the most seats after the October 4, 2026, Brazilian Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats amid high turnover. PL, already the largest bloc with 15 senators, benefits from opposition leads in 21 of recent Real Time Big Data state polls (January 2026 analysis), strong regional dominance outside the Northeast, and net gains from the recent party affiliation window. Surging presidential polls for PL's Flávio Bolsonaro—tying Lula at 43% in March Datafolha—provide coattails effect, while Centrão rivals like MDB (10 leaving) and PSD (11 leaving) face heavy losses, positioning MDB and PP as distant challengers at 11% and 10.7%. State races remain fluid with key candidates like Styvenson Valentim and Fernando Haddad in contention.

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.

This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.

All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
交易量
$6,343
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "巴西自由黨（PL）" at 76%, followed by "巴西民主運動黨（MDB）" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位" is "巴西自由黨（PL）" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "巴西民主運動黨（MDB）" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下屆巴西參議院選舉：獲得最多席位" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.