Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) to secure the most seats in Sweden's September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls at 32-33%—well ahead of Sweden Democrats (SD) at around 20% and Moderates (M) at 17-18%, per Kantar-Sifo (April 11), Verian (April 5), and Indikator (April 1). This positioning stems from the incumbent right-wing Tidö bloc's erosion, highlighted by Liberal Party turmoil after its March 13 "Sweden Promise" pact with SD triggered resignations and a narrow leadership survival for Simona Mohamsson on March 22, fragmenting potential coalitions. Seat projections grant S ~120 mandates versus SD's 75 and M's 64, though centre-left (S+V+C+MP) and right blocs hover near parity; economic pressures and immigration debates sustain S momentum amid stable polling trends over the past 30 days. Late scandals or shifts could narrow the gap before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於瑞典社會民主工人黨(S) 89%
溫和黨(M) 5.6%
瑞典民主黨(SD) 4.7%
綠黨(MP) <1%
$1,086,063 交易量
$1,086,063 交易量

瑞典社會民主工人黨(S)
89%

溫和黨(M)
6%

瑞典民主黨(SD)
5%

綠黨(MP)
1%

左翼黨(V)
<1%

公民聯盟(MED)
<1%

中間黨(C)
<1%

基督教民主黨(KD)
<1%

自由黨(L)
<1%
瑞典社會民主工人黨(S) 89%
溫和黨(M) 5.6%
瑞典民主黨(SD) 4.7%
綠黨(MP) <1%
$1,086,063 交易量
$1,086,063 交易量

瑞典社會民主工人黨(S)
89%

溫和黨(M)
6%

瑞典民主黨(SD)
5%

綠黨(MP)
1%

左翼黨(V)
<1%

公民聯盟(MED)
<1%

中間黨(C)
<1%

基督教民主黨(KD)
<1%

自由黨(L)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
市場開放時間: Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) to secure the most seats in Sweden's September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting its sustained double-digit lead in recent polls at 32-33%—well ahead of Sweden Democrats (SD) at around 20% and Moderates (M) at 17-18%, per Kantar-Sifo (April 11), Verian (April 5), and Indikator (April 1). This positioning stems from the incumbent right-wing Tidö bloc's erosion, highlighted by Liberal Party turmoil after its March 13 "Sweden Promise" pact with SD triggered resignations and a narrow leadership survival for Simona Mohamsson on March 22, fragmenting potential coalitions. Seat projections grant S ~120 mandates versus SD's 75 and M's 64, though centre-left (S+V+C+MP) and right blocs hover near parity; economic pressures and immigration debates sustain S momentum amid stable polling trends over the past 30 days. Late scandals or shifts could narrow the gap before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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