Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the frontrunner for Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 54% implied probability driven by his leading position in recent intention polls like the July Ipsos survey (11-14% support) amid widespread discontent over economic stagnation, corruption scandals, and ongoing protests under President Boluarte. Jorge Nieto (19%) gains traction as an economist promising fiscal reforms, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino (18%) appeals to security-focused voters via his military background. Clustered odds around 17% for candidates like Yonhy Lescano and José Williams reflect fragmented opposition fields. A fresh CPI poll last week reinforced López Aliaga's edge, though volatility persists ahead of candidate registrations and April 2026 voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 19%
Jorge Nieto 19%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa 19%

Rafael López Aliaga
54%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
19%

Jorge Nieto
19%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
19%

César Acuña
19%

José Luna
18%

Ricardo Belmont
18%

Fernando Olivera
18%

Mesías Guevara
18%

Yonhy Lescano
17%

Roberto Chiabra
17%

José Williams
17%

Mario Vizcarra
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Alfonso López Chau
17%

Enrique Valderrama
17%

Fiorella Molinelli
17%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

George Forsyth
6%
Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 19%
Jorge Nieto 19%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa 19%

Rafael López Aliaga
54%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
19%

Jorge Nieto
19%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
19%

César Acuña
19%

José Luna
18%

Ricardo Belmont
18%

Fernando Olivera
18%

Mesías Guevara
18%

Yonhy Lescano
17%

Roberto Chiabra
17%

José Williams
17%

Mario Vizcarra
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Alfonso López Chau
17%

Enrique Valderrama
17%

Fiorella Molinelli
17%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the frontrunner for Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 54% implied probability driven by his leading position in recent intention polls like the July Ipsos survey (11-14% support) amid widespread discontent over economic stagnation, corruption scandals, and ongoing protests under President Boluarte. Jorge Nieto (19%) gains traction as an economist promising fiscal reforms, while Roberto Sánchez Palomino (18%) appeals to security-focused voters via his military background. Clustered odds around 17% for candidates like Yonhy Lescano and José Williams reflect fragmented opposition fields. A fresh CPI poll last week reinforced López Aliaga's edge, though volatility persists ahead of candidate registrations and April 2026 voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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