Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 320-379 X posts for March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 (11.5%) edging 340-359 and 360-379 (both 10.5%), reflecting expectations of 40-47 daily tweets based on his 2024 average of 30-50 amid Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges—peaking over 100 daily during election fervor—bolster higher bins, while quieter periods like holidays temper lows; no confirmed 2026 events yet, but his DOGE role and xAI hype sustain volume. Tight clustering signals sensitivity to real-time catalysts like robotaxi reveals or viral spats, where even modest spikes could flip leading odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於320-339 12%
340-359 11%
360-379 11%
300-319 10%
$764,832 交易量
$764,832 交易量
少於 20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
6%
280-299
9%
300-319
10%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
4%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
320-339 12%
340-359 11%
360-379 11%
300-319 10%
$764,832 交易量
$764,832 交易量
少於 20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
6%
280-299
9%
300-319
10%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
4%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 320-379 X posts for March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 (11.5%) edging 340-359 and 360-379 (both 10.5%), reflecting expectations of 40-47 daily tweets based on his 2024 average of 30-50 amid Tesla launches, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges—peaking over 100 daily during election fervor—bolster higher bins, while quieter periods like holidays temper lows; no confirmed 2026 events yet, but his DOGE role and xAI hype sustain volume. Tight clustering signals sensitivity to real-time catalysts like robotaxi reveals or viral spats, where even modest spikes could flip leading odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions