Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Elon Musk will post 360-419 times during the March 20-27, 2026 week, with 380-399 tweets leading at 13.2% odds, closely trailed by 400-419 (11.6%) and 360-379 (11.5%). This clustering stems from Elon's historical averages of 40-60 daily X posts, extrapolated from 2024 peaks exceeding 300 weekly amid Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, and political firestorms. Recent surges, like 500+ posts during U.S. election fervor, fuel upside bets on 420+, while quieter periods suggest downside risk to 300-359. Key differentiators include unpredictable catalysts—potential 2026 product reveals or controversies—that could spike volume, though base rates anchor expectations around his proven high-engagement rhythm.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於380-399 13.2%
400-419 11.6%
360-379 12%
340-359 11%
$1,775,485 交易量
$1,775,485 交易量
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
1%
240-259
2%
260-279
3%
280-299
7%
300-319
10%
320-339
11%
340-359
11%
360-379
12%
380-399
13%
400-419
12%
420-439
7%
440-459
5%
460-479
4%
480-499
3%
500-519
2%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
380-399 13.2%
400-419 11.6%
360-379 12%
340-359 11%
$1,775,485 交易量
$1,775,485 交易量
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
1%
220-239
1%
240-259
2%
260-279
3%
280-299
7%
300-319
10%
320-339
11%
340-359
11%
360-379
12%
380-399
13%
400-419
12%
420-439
7%
440-459
5%
460-479
4%
480-499
3%
500-519
2%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Elon Musk will post 360-419 times during the March 20-27, 2026 week, with 380-399 tweets leading at 13.2% odds, closely trailed by 400-419 (11.6%) and 360-379 (11.5%). This clustering stems from Elon's historical averages of 40-60 daily X posts, extrapolated from 2024 peaks exceeding 300 weekly amid Tesla earnings, SpaceX launches, and political firestorms. Recent surges, like 500+ posts during U.S. election fervor, fuel upside bets on 420+, while quieter periods suggest downside risk to 300-359. Key differentiators include unpredictable catalysts—potential 2026 product reveals or controversies—that could spike volume, though base rates anchor expectations around his proven high-engagement rhythm.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions