Market icon
選舉·中東

黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家

Market icon
選舉·中東

黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家

黎巴嫩力量（LF） 13%

獨立運動（IM） 7.4%

ReLebanon 3.3%

瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani） 3.1%

Polymarket

$221,194 交易量

黎巴嫩力量（LF） 13%

獨立運動（IM） 7.4%

ReLebanon 3.3%

瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani） 3.1%

Polymarket

$221,194 交易量

黎巴嫩力量（LF）

$135,922 交易量

13%

獨立運動（IM）

$0 交易量

7%

ReLebanon

$1,789 交易量

3%

瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）

$0 交易量

3%

全國自由黨（NLP）

$0 交易量

3%

國家對話黨（NDP）

$0 交易量

3%

聯合黨（UP）

$2,551 交易量

3%

黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）

$3,400 交易量

2%

真主黨（Hezb）

$41,748 交易量

2%

馬達黨（Mada）

$0 交易量

2%

塔卡多姆黨

$0 交易量

2%

人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）

$2,147 交易量

2%

希望運動（Amal）

$26,786 交易量

2%

伊斯蘭團體（IG）

$0 交易量

1%

馬拉達運動（MM）

$2,249 交易量

15%

伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）

$0 交易量

1%

尊嚴運動（DM）

$0 交易量

1%

亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）

$4,602 交易量

1%

卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）

$0 交易量

1%

自由愛國運動（FPM）

$0 交易量

1%

進步社會黨（PSP）

$0 交易量

<1%

Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）

$0 交易量

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 交易量

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its term by two years on March 9 amid the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war, postponing May 2026 elections to 2028 and amplifying uncertainty in this highly fragmented prediction market under proportional representation. Trader consensus slightly favors Marada Movement at 14.5% for its entrenched Maronite base in Zgharta and Sleiman Frangieh's alliance ties, edging Lebanese Forces' 12.5% anti-Hezbollah Christian appeal, while Independence Movement's 7.4% reflects reformist, sovereigntist momentum. No party nears majority potential; consolidation hinges on pre-election coalitions, presidential influence from Joseph Aoun, war de-escalation, and Shia opposition dynamics, with low odds across Hezbollah and allies signaling perceived vulnerabilities.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$221,194
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its term by two years on March 9 amid the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war, postponing May 2026 elections to 2028 and amplifying uncertainty in this highly fragmented prediction market under proportional representation. Trader consensus slightly favors Marada Movement at 14.5% for its entrenched Maronite base in Zgharta and Sleiman Frangieh's alliance ties, edging Lebanese Forces' 12.5% anti-Hezbollah Christian appeal, while Independence Movement's 7.4% reflects reformist, sovereigntist momentum. No party nears majority potential; consolidation hinges on pre-election coalitions, presidential influence from Joseph Aoun, war de-escalation, and Shia opposition dynamics, with low odds across Hezbollah and allies signaling perceived vulnerabilities.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$221,194
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "馬拉達運動（MM）" at 15%, followed by "黎巴嫩力量（LF）" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 15¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家" has generated $221.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家" is "馬拉達運動（MM）" at 15%, meaning the market assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "黎巴嫩力量（LF）" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "黎巴嫩議會選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.