Trader consensus in the Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner market reflects a deeply fragmented field ahead of the vote now postponed to 2028, with Lebanese Forces (LF) edging Marada Movement (MM) at 13% to 12.7% implied probabilities, capturing trader skepticism over any single party's path to most seats under proportional representation. Parliament's March 9 extension of its mandate by two years—passing 76-0 amid security fallout from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict—has amplified uncertainty, muting odds across Hezbollah, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, and independents like Independence Movement. LF leads via anti-Hezbollah momentum in Christian areas post-ceasefire, while Marada leverages northern Zgharta base and pro-Syria ties; consolidation hinges on Sunni alliances like Future Movement's hinted return, expatriate registration surges, or coalition pacts before snap election calls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於獨立運動（IM） 14.1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 13%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani） 3.1%
全國自由黨（NLP） 2.6%
$223,871 交易量
$223,871 交易量
2026-05-31
獨立運動（IM）
8%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
13%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
3%
全國自由黨（NLP）
3%
國家對話黨（NDP）
3%
ReLebanon
2%
聯合黨（UP）
2%
塔卡多姆黨
2%
真主黨（Hezb）
2%
希望運動（Amal）
1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
1%
馬達黨（Mada）
1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
14%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
獨立運動（IM） 14.1%
黎巴嫩力量（LF） 13%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani） 3.1%
全國自由黨（NLP） 2.6%
$223,871 交易量
$223,871 交易量
2026-05-31
獨立運動（IM）
$2,255 交易量
8%
黎巴嫩力量（LF）
$136,054 交易量
13%
瓦塔尼聯盟（Watani）
$0 交易量
3%
全國自由黨（NLP）
$0 交易量
3%
國家對話黨（NDP）
$0 交易量
3%
ReLebanon
$1,794 交易量
2%
聯合黨（UP）
$2,551 交易量
2%
塔卡多姆黨
$0 交易量
2%
真主黨（Hezb）
$41,748 交易量
2%
希望運動（Amal）
$26,907 交易量
1%
伊斯蘭團體（IG）
$0 交易量
1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社會主義復興黨（巴斯黨）
$3,565 交易量
1%
馬達黨（Mada）
$0 交易量
1%
馬拉達運動（MM）
$2,249 交易量
14%
人民納賽爾主義組織（PNO）
$2,147 交易量
1%
伊斯蘭慈善工程協會（ICPA）
$0 交易量
1%
尊嚴運動（DM）
$0 交易量
1%
自由愛國運動（FPM）
$0 交易量
1%
亞美尼亞革命聯盟（ARF）
$4,602 交易量
1%
卡塔埃布黨（Kataeb）
$0 交易量
1%
進步社會黨（PSP）
$0 交易量
<1%
Lana－社會民主黨（Lana）
$0 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus in the Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner market reflects a deeply fragmented field ahead of the vote now postponed to 2028, with Lebanese Forces (LF) edging Marada Movement (MM) at 13% to 12.7% implied probabilities, capturing trader skepticism over any single party's path to most seats under proportional representation. Parliament's March 9 extension of its mandate by two years—passing 76-0 amid security fallout from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict—has amplified uncertainty, muting odds across Hezbollah, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, and independents like Independence Movement. LF leads via anti-Hezbollah momentum in Christian areas post-ceasefire, while Marada leverages northern Zgharta base and pro-Syria ties; consolidation hinges on Sunni alliances like Future Movement's hinted return, expatriate registration surges, or coalition pacts before snap election calls.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$223,871結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus in the Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner market reflects a deeply fragmented field ahead of the vote now postponed to 2028, with Lebanese Forces (LF) edging Marada Movement (MM) at 13% to 12.7% implied probabilities, capturing trader skepticism over any single party's path to most seats under proportional representation. Parliament's March 9 extension of its mandate by two years—passing 76-0 amid security fallout from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict—has amplified uncertainty, muting odds across Hezbollah, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, and independents like Independence Movement. LF leads via anti-Hezbollah momentum in Christian areas post-ceasefire, while Marada leverages northern Zgharta base and pro-Syria ties; consolidation hinges on Sunni alliances like Future Movement's hinted return, expatriate registration surges, or coalition pacts before snap election calls.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$223,871結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner market reflects a deeply fragmented field ahead of the vote now postponed to 2028, with Lebanese Forces (LF) edging Marada Movement (MM) at 13% to 12.7% implied probabilities, capturing trader skepticism over any single party's path to most seats under proportional representation. Parliament's March 9 extension of its mandate by two years—passing 76-0 amid security fallout from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict—has amplified uncertainty, muting odds across Hezbollah, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, and independents like Independence Movement. LF leads via anti-Hezbollah momentum in Christian areas post-ceasefire, while Marada leverages northern Zgharta base and pro-Syria ties; consolidation hinges on Sunni alliances like Future Movement's hinted return, expatriate registration surges, or coalition pacts before snap election calls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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