The March 31 deadline passed without a US ground invasion of Iran, cementing trader consensus at 100% for "No" as the US-Israel air campaign—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile bases, and Strait of Hormuz naval assets—continues to degrade Iranian capabilities without boots on the ground. Recent Pentagon deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units, positioned for potential escalation, but President Trump's March 31 statement signaling war's end in two-to-three weeks and a rejected 15-point US ceasefire plan via Pakistan reflect de-escalation signals amid high ground war costs. Defense Secretary Hegseth deemed coming days "decisive" yet ruled nothing out, though historical base rates post-Iraq deter invasion. Resolution hinges on verified absence of US troop entry; unlikely shifts from covert ops disclosures or reclassification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$5,665,699 交易量
$5,665,699 交易量
是
$5,665,699 交易量
$5,665,699 交易量
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The March 31 deadline passed without a US ground invasion of Iran, cementing trader consensus at 100% for "No" as the US-Israel air campaign—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile bases, and Strait of Hormuz naval assets—continues to degrade Iranian capabilities without boots on the ground. Recent Pentagon deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units, positioned for potential escalation, but President Trump's March 31 statement signaling war's end in two-to-three weeks and a rejected 15-point US ceasefire plan via Pakistan reflect de-escalation signals amid high ground war costs. Defense Secretary Hegseth deemed coming days "decisive" yet ruled nothing out, though historical base rates post-Iraq deter invasion. Resolution hinges on verified absence of US troop entry; unlikely shifts from covert ops disclosures or reclassification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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