Trader consensus favors 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily at end-April (46%) due to a sharp drop in volumes following Iran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes near Isfahan on April 19, which spiked war risk insurance premiums and prompted shipping firms to delay or reroute tankers. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows oil tanker transits averaging 11-12 per day the week ending April 26—halved from the prior 21—marking a three-year low amid escalation fears, though Iran has not imposed a formal blockade. Higher bins like 20-30 (14.5%) reflect potential recovery if de-escalation diplomacy prevails, while 60+ (13%) lags far behind historical norms of around 20 large crude carriers daily. No major developments have reversed the trend by month's end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0-10 46%
20-30 15%
60+ 14%
10-20 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
0-10
46%
10-20
14%
20-30
15%
30-40
9%
40-50
6%
50-60
3%
60+
14%
0-10 46%
20-30 15%
60+ 14%
10-20 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
0-10
$1,464 交易量
46%
10-20
$83 交易量
14%
20-30
$96 交易量
15%
30-40
$105 交易量
9%
40-50
$55 交易量
6%
50-60
$70 交易量
3%
60+
$64 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily at end-April (46%) due to a sharp drop in volumes following Iran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes near Isfahan on April 19, which spiked war risk insurance premiums and prompted shipping firms to delay or reroute tankers. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows oil tanker transits averaging 11-12 per day the week ending April 26—halved from the prior 21—marking a three-year low amid escalation fears, though Iran has not imposed a formal blockade. Higher bins like 20-30 (14.5%) reflect potential recovery if de-escalation diplomacy prevails, while 60+ (13%) lags far behind historical norms of around 20 large crude carriers daily. No major developments have reversed the trend by month's end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
交易量
$1,937結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily at end-April (46%) due to a sharp drop in volumes following Iran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes near Isfahan on April 19, which spiked war risk insurance premiums and prompted shipping firms to delay or reroute tankers. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows oil tanker transits averaging 11-12 per day the week ending April 26—halved from the prior 21—marking a three-year low amid escalation fears, though Iran has not imposed a formal blockade. Higher bins like 20-30 (14.5%) reflect potential recovery if de-escalation diplomacy prevails, while 60+ (13%) lags far behind historical norms of around 20 large crude carriers daily. No major developments have reversed the trend by month's end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$1,937結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily at end-April (46%) due to a sharp drop in volumes following Iran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes near Isfahan on April 19, which spiked war risk insurance premiums and prompted shipping firms to delay or reroute tankers. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows oil tanker transits averaging 11-12 per day the week ending April 26—halved from the prior 21—marking a three-year low amid escalation fears, though Iran has not imposed a formal blockade. Higher bins like 20-30 (14.5%) reflect potential recovery if de-escalation diplomacy prevails, while 60+ (13%) lags far behind historical norms of around 20 large crude carriers daily. No major developments have reversed the trend by month's end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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