Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk sustaining his prolific X posting pace, with implied probabilities peaking at 11.5% for 300-319 and 320-339 tweets during the March 27-April 3, 2026 week, reflecting his 2024-2025 average of 40-50 daily posts amid political and business updates. Recent weeks logged 280-360 tweets, fueling tight competition among these bins, differentiated by unannounced catalysts like Tesla earnings echoes or SpaceX milestones that could spike volume 10-20%. Absent slowdown signals from Musk's DOGE role or platform tweaks, lower ranges lag as historical precedents favor sustained high output in non-quiet periods.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$302,615 交易量
$302,615 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
6%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$302,615 交易量
$302,615 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
6%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk sustaining his prolific X posting pace, with implied probabilities peaking at 11.5% for 300-319 and 320-339 tweets during the March 27-April 3, 2026 week, reflecting his 2024-2025 average of 40-50 daily posts amid political and business updates. Recent weeks logged 280-360 tweets, fueling tight competition among these bins, differentiated by unannounced catalysts like Tesla earnings echoes or SpaceX milestones that could spike volume 10-20%. Absent slowdown signals from Musk's DOGE role or platform tweaks, lower ranges lag as historical precedents favor sustained high output in non-quiet periods.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions