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Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

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Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Mar 27

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55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

Trader consensus reflects a 54.5% implied probability for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by the ongoing late March severe weather pattern, including high winds forecast for New York-area airports (EWR, JFK, LGA) and Philadelphia (PHL), plus potential thunderstorms in Chicago (ORD, MDW) and Indianapolis as noted in the FAA's March 27 air traffic report. Mid-March blizzards and storms already caused thousands of cancellations, amplifying caution amid spring break travel surges and United Airlines' 5% capacity cuts due to soaring fuel prices. The closely contested odds stem from models indicating lower widespread severe risk on the 31st despite tornado outlooks through the week, with FAA advisories for possible LAX/SAN and ski country delays adding uncertainty. Intensifying forecasts or new ground stops could push toward Yes, while clearing skies and stable airspace favor No.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 55% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 55¢, the market collectively assigns a 55% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is 55% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 55% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.