Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google securing the third-best AI model by March 31, anchored by Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1500, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6. Recent leaderboard updates through late March show Gemini holding firm due to superior multimodal processing and 1M+ token context handling, outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta in overall battles despite Grok's creative strengths. No major releases have disrupted this order in the past week, with markets pricing minimal volatility ahead of resolution; a surprise xAI update or Elo surge from challengers like DeepSeek could realistically drop Google to fourth, though such late shifts are rare given typical model iteration timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Google 97.8%
xAI 1.5%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$482,333 交易量
$482,333 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
98%
xAI
2%
Z.ai
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
Google 97.8%
xAI 1.5%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$482,333 交易量
$482,333 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$48,068 交易量
98%
xAI
$34,580 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$33,879 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$49,896 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$64,856 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$42,979 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$78,502 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 交易量
<1%
百度
$50,997 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
美團
$26,832 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google securing the third-best AI model by March 31, anchored by Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1500, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6. Recent leaderboard updates through late March show Gemini holding firm due to superior multimodal processing and 1M+ token context handling, outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta in overall battles despite Grok's creative strengths. No major releases have disrupted this order in the past week, with markets pricing minimal volatility ahead of resolution; a surprise xAI update or Elo surge from challengers like DeepSeek could realistically drop Google to fourth, though such late shifts are rare given typical model iteration timelines.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$482,333結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google securing the third-best AI model by March 31, anchored by Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1500, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6. Recent leaderboard updates through late March show Gemini holding firm due to superior multimodal processing and 1M+ token context handling, outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta in overall battles despite Grok's creative strengths. No major releases have disrupted this order in the past week, with markets pricing minimal volatility ahead of resolution; a surprise xAI update or Elo surge from challengers like DeepSeek could realistically drop Google to fourth, though such late shifts are rare given typical model iteration timelines.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$482,333結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google securing the third-best AI model by March 31, anchored by Gemini 3.1 Pro's stable #3 ranking on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1500, trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 series and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6. Recent leaderboard updates through late March show Gemini holding firm due to superior multimodal processing and 1M+ token context handling, outpacing xAI's Grok-4.20 beta in overall battles despite Grok's creative strengths. No major releases have disrupted this order in the past week, with markets pricing minimal volatility ahead of resolution; a surprise xAI update or Elo surge from challengers like DeepSeek could realistically drop Google to fourth, though such late shifts are rare given typical model iteration timelines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions