Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude series as the frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability for the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by its current narrow trailing position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 (April 2026), which captured the top spot with superior reasoning and agentic benchmarks like HLE and TerminalBench. Anthropic's depth—multiple Claude Opus 4.7 variants occupying top-5 slots—bolsters resilience against rivals, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (16.5%) trails closely but faces uncertainty ahead of Google I/O on May 19, where a new model could challenge for #1 without displacing Claude. OpenAI (10.7%) risks slipping if no further iteration emerges, amid rapid 2026 releases tightening the frontier AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 63%
Google 16%
OpenAI 10.1%
xAI 2.9%
$395,549 交易量
$395,549 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
62%
16%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Meta
1%
字節跳動
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美團
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 63%
Google 16%
OpenAI 10.1%
xAI 2.9%
$395,549 交易量
$395,549 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$14,316 交易量
62%
$5,535 交易量
16%
OpenAI
$34,093 交易量
10%
xAI
$14,810 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$248,711 交易量
2%
Meta
$4,065 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$3,859 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$6,039 交易量
1%
Mistral
$4,790 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$4,876 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,317 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,158 交易量
<1%
美團
$34,025 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$2,862 交易量
<1%
微軟
$4,093 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude series as the frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability for the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by its current narrow trailing position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 (April 2026), which captured the top spot with superior reasoning and agentic benchmarks like HLE and TerminalBench. Anthropic's depth—multiple Claude Opus 4.7 variants occupying top-5 slots—bolsters resilience against rivals, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (16.5%) trails closely but faces uncertainty ahead of Google I/O on May 19, where a new model could challenge for #1 without displacing Claude. OpenAI (10.7%) risks slipping if no further iteration emerges, amid rapid 2026 releases tightening the frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$395,549結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude series as the frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability for the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by its current narrow trailing position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 (April 2026), which captured the top spot with superior reasoning and agentic benchmarks like HLE and TerminalBench. Anthropic's depth—multiple Claude Opus 4.7 variants occupying top-5 slots—bolsters resilience against rivals, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (16.5%) trails closely but faces uncertainty ahead of Google I/O on May 19, where a new model could challenge for #1 without displacing Claude. OpenAI (10.7%) risks slipping if no further iteration emerges, amid rapid 2026 releases tightening the frontier AI race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$395,549結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Anthropic's Claude series as the frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability for the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of June, driven by its current narrow trailing position behind OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5 (April 2026), which captured the top spot with superior reasoning and agentic benchmarks like HLE and TerminalBench. Anthropic's depth—multiple Claude Opus 4.7 variants occupying top-5 slots—bolsters resilience against rivals, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (16.5%) trails closely but faces uncertainty ahead of Google I/O on May 19, where a new model could challenge for #1 without displacing Claude. OpenAI (10.7%) risks slipping if no further iteration emerges, amid rapid 2026 releases tightening the frontier AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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