Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, driven by its Gemini 3 Pro model's stable Elo rating securely behind Anthropic's leading Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's close-second GPT-5.2, but ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and trailing open-source challengers. Recent leaderboard updates through March 28 confirm this pecking order, with no major releases in the past week shifting rankings amid typical volatility in crowdsourced benchmarks. While product timelines rarely slip dramatically in final days, a surprise xAI update or rapid open-source surge could challenge Google's spot before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Google 97.9%
xAI 1.8%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
$515,046 交易量
$515,046 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
98%
xAI
2%
Anthropic
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
Google 97.9%
xAI 1.8%
Anthropic <1%
OpenAI <1%
$515,046 交易量
$515,046 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$48,113 交易量
98%
xAI
$34,644 交易量
2%
Anthropic
$96,934 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$50,422 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$33,963 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$42,979 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$78,502 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 交易量
<1%
百度
$50,997 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
美團
$26,832 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, driven by its Gemini 3 Pro model's stable Elo rating securely behind Anthropic's leading Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's close-second GPT-5.2, but ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and trailing open-source challengers. Recent leaderboard updates through March 28 confirm this pecking order, with no major releases in the past week shifting rankings amid typical volatility in crowdsourced benchmarks. While product timelines rarely slip dramatically in final days, a surprise xAI update or rapid open-source surge could challenge Google's spot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$515,046結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, driven by its Gemini 3 Pro model's stable Elo rating securely behind Anthropic's leading Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's close-second GPT-5.2, but ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and trailing open-source challengers. Recent leaderboard updates through March 28 confirm this pecking order, with no major releases in the past week shifting rankings amid typical volatility in crowdsourced benchmarks. While product timelines rarely slip dramatically in final days, a surprise xAI update or rapid open-source surge could challenge Google's spot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$515,046結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.7% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, driven by its Gemini 3 Pro model's stable Elo rating securely behind Anthropic's leading Claude Opus 4.6 and OpenAI's close-second GPT-5.2, but ahead of xAI's Grok-4.20 and trailing open-source challengers. Recent leaderboard updates through March 28 confirm this pecking order, with no major releases in the past week shifting rankings amid typical volatility in crowdsourced benchmarks. While product timelines rarely slip dramatically in final days, a surprise xAI update or rapid open-source surge could challenge Google's spot before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions