Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$481,992 交易量
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
26%
Kaitlan Collins
3%
Eat our Lunch
5%
Ethanol
3%
Embargo
10%
Finish the Job
12%
Khamenei
5%
Chuck Norris
3%
$481,992 交易量
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$19,937 交易量
26%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,631 交易量
3%
Eat our Lunch
$1,945 交易量
5%
Ethanol
$11,836 交易量
3%
Embargo
$8,784 交易量
10%
Finish the Job
$3,972 交易量
12%
Khamenei
$54,660 交易量
5%
Chuck Norris
$9,685 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
交易量
$481,992結束日期
Mar 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
交易量
$481,992結束日期
Mar 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions