Trader consensus prices a tight race for Republican House seats around 190, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid a narrow current 217-seat majority, compounded by a record 37 Republican open seats from retirements—nearly double Democrats' 23—including recent Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves' exit two days ago. Cook Political Report ratings (March 12) show 36 competitive battlegrounds, with 15 leaning Democrat and 17 tossups, favoring Democratic net gains of 20-30 seats. A narrowing Democratic edge on the generic ballot, per Rasmussen's March 26 poll, tempers expectations of deeper losses, while fluctuating battleground district polls and presidential approval ratings keep outcomes uncertain. Shifts could emerge from economic data, further retirements, or high-profile primaries in swing states.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於193 seats
低於190 31%
190-194 29%
200-204 9%
195-199 8%
$197,536 交易量
$197,536 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
低於190
31%
190-194
29%
195-199
8%
200-204
9%
205-209
8%
210-214
4%
215-219
4%
220-224
2%
225-229
1%
230+
1%
低於190 31%
190-194 29%
200-204 9%
195-199 8%
$197,536 交易量
$197,536 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
低於190
$8,124 交易量
31%
190-194
$5,125 交易量
29%
195-199
$25,571 交易量
8%
200-204
$19,658 交易量
9%
205-209
$31,431 交易量
8%
210-214
$10,090 交易量
4%
215-219
$4,838 交易量
4%
220-224
$50,092 交易量
2%
225-229
$18,679 交易量
1%
230+
$23,928 交易量
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a tight race for Republican House seats around 190, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid a narrow current 217-seat majority, compounded by a record 37 Republican open seats from retirements—nearly double Democrats' 23—including recent Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves' exit two days ago. Cook Political Report ratings (March 12) show 36 competitive battlegrounds, with 15 leaning Democrat and 17 tossups, favoring Democratic net gains of 20-30 seats. A narrowing Democratic edge on the generic ballot, per Rasmussen's March 26 poll, tempers expectations of deeper losses, while fluctuating battleground district polls and presidential approval ratings keep outcomes uncertain. Shifts could emerge from economic data, further retirements, or high-profile primaries in swing states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$197,536結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a tight race for Republican House seats around 190, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid a narrow current 217-seat majority, compounded by a record 37 Republican open seats from retirements—nearly double Democrats' 23—including recent Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves' exit two days ago. Cook Political Report ratings (March 12) show 36 competitive battlegrounds, with 15 leaning Democrat and 17 tossups, favoring Democratic net gains of 20-30 seats. A narrowing Democratic edge on the generic ballot, per Rasmussen's March 26 poll, tempers expectations of deeper losses, while fluctuating battleground district polls and presidential approval ratings keep outcomes uncertain. Shifts could emerge from economic data, further retirements, or high-profile primaries in swing states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$197,536結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a tight race for Republican House seats around 190, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid a narrow current 217-seat majority, compounded by a record 37 Republican open seats from retirements—nearly double Democrats' 23—including recent Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves' exit two days ago. Cook Political Report ratings (March 12) show 36 competitive battlegrounds, with 15 leaning Democrat and 17 tossups, favoring Democratic net gains of 20-30 seats. A narrowing Democratic edge on the generic ballot, per Rasmussen's March 26 poll, tempers expectations of deeper losses, while fluctuating battleground district polls and presidential approval ratings keep outcomes uncertain. Shifts could emerge from economic data, further retirements, or high-profile primaries in swing states.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions