The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, coupled with the updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median year-end 2026 rate and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, underpins the 86.5 percent market-implied odds for further tightening this year. Elevated inflation readings, with August core PCE near 3.4 percent and the median 2026 PCE forecast lifted to 3.7 percent, combined with resilient GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market, have shifted the policy stance hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders are pricing in the next potential move ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting, where incoming data on prices and employment will shape the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated87% chance
$70,942 Vol.
$70,942 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
87% chance
$70,942 Vol.
$70,942 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, coupled with the updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median year-end 2026 rate and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, underpins the 86.5 percent market-implied odds for further tightening this year. Elevated inflation readings, with August core PCE near 3.4 percent and the median 2026 PCE forecast lifted to 3.7 percent, combined with resilient GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market, have shifted the policy stance hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders are pricing in the next potential move ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting, where incoming data on prices and employment will shape the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$70,942End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, coupled with the updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median year-end 2026 rate and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, underpins the 86.5 percent market-implied odds for further tightening this year. Elevated inflation readings, with August core PCE near 3.4 percent and the median 2026 PCE forecast lifted to 3.7 percent, combined with resilient GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market, have shifted the policy stance hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders are pricing in the next potential move ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting, where incoming data on prices and employment will shape the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$70,942End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, coupled with the updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median year-end 2026 rate and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional hike, underpins the 86.5 percent market-implied odds for further tightening this year. Elevated inflation readings, with August core PCE near 3.4 percent and the median 2026 PCE forecast lifted to 3.7 percent, combined with resilient GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market, have shifted the policy stance hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders are pricing in the next potential move ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting, where incoming data on prices and employment will shape the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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