Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with the 3.0–3.5% bin leading at 24% implied probability amid closely contested odds across mid-range outcomes, reflecting mixed leading indicators. The New York Fed nowcast recently rose to 2.4% following robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating low expectations—bolstering bets on resilient consumer spending and manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.3. However, Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.6% on April 2 after widening trade deficits dragged net exports, echoing Q4 2025's meager 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and retail sales data ahead of the BEA advance estimate on April 30, with historical nowcast divergences underscoring resolution uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРост ВВП США в 1 квартале 2026 года?
Рост ВВП США в 1 квартале 2026 года?
3,0–3,5% 23%
2,5–3,0% 20.2%
1,0–1,5% 17.2%
1,5–2,0% 16.3%
$234,896 Объем
$234,896 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
<1,0%
9%
1,0–1,5%
17%
1,5–2,0%
16%
2,0–2,5%
12%
2,5–3,0%
20%
3,0–3,5%
23%
≥3,5%
12%
3,0–3,5% 23%
2,5–3,0% 20.2%
1,0–1,5% 17.2%
1,5–2,0% 16.3%
$234,896 Объем
$234,896 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
<1,0%
$22,629 Объем
9%
1,0–1,5%
$5,135 Объем
17%
1,5–2,0%
$15,474 Объем
16%
2,0–2,5%
$32,427 Объем
12%
2,5–3,0%
$14,050 Объем
20%
3,0–3,5%
$74,656 Объем
23%
≥3,5%
$70,524 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with the 3.0–3.5% bin leading at 24% implied probability amid closely contested odds across mid-range outcomes, reflecting mixed leading indicators. The New York Fed nowcast recently rose to 2.4% following robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating low expectations—bolstering bets on resilient consumer spending and manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.3. However, Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.6% on April 2 after widening trade deficits dragged net exports, echoing Q4 2025's meager 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and retail sales data ahead of the BEA advance estimate on April 30, with historical nowcast divergences underscoring resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Объем
$234,896Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with the 3.0–3.5% bin leading at 24% implied probability amid closely contested odds across mid-range outcomes, reflecting mixed leading indicators. The New York Fed nowcast recently rose to 2.4% following robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating low expectations—bolstering bets on resilient consumer spending and manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.3. However, Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.6% on April 2 after widening trade deficits dragged net exports, echoing Q4 2025's meager 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and retail sales data ahead of the BEA advance estimate on April 30, with historical nowcast divergences underscoring resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Объем
$234,896Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US GDP growth, with the 3.0–3.5% bin leading at 24% implied probability amid closely contested odds across mid-range outcomes, reflecting mixed leading indicators. The New York Fed nowcast recently rose to 2.4% following robust March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—beating low expectations—bolstering bets on resilient consumer spending and manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.3. However, Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 1.6% on April 2 after widening trade deficits dragged net exports, echoing Q4 2025's meager 0.7% growth. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and retail sales data ahead of the BEA advance estimate on April 30, with historical nowcast divergences underscoring resolution uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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