Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate Tokyo's highest temperature on March 26 will reach 13°C, aligning with trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability, driven by a persistent cold air mass over eastern Japan suppressing daytime highs amid light winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations show Tokyo's past week averages below seasonal norms of 13–15°C, with March 23–25 highs at 11–12°C due to northerly flows, reinforcing model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs projecting minimal warming. Uncertainty remains from potential clearing skies boosting insolation, but probabilities for 14°C or higher stay low at under 15% absent a sharp ridge development; next JMA update expected March 25 could refine this outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
13°C 85%
14°C 14%
15°C 1.0%
16°C or higher <1%
$96,119 Объем
$96,119 Объем
13°C
85%
14°C
14%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 85%
14°C 14%
15°C 1.0%
16°C or higher <1%
$96,119 Объем
$96,119 Объем
13°C
85%
14°C
14%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate Tokyo's highest temperature on March 26 will reach 13°C, aligning with trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability, driven by a persistent cold air mass over eastern Japan suppressing daytime highs amid light winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations show Tokyo's past week averages below seasonal norms of 13–15°C, with March 23–25 highs at 11–12°C due to northerly flows, reinforcing model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs projecting minimal warming. Uncertainty remains from potential clearing skies boosting insolation, but probabilities for 14°C or higher stay low at under 15% absent a sharp ridge development; next JMA update expected March 25 could refine this outlook.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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