Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul-area forecasts for April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C due to divergent model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The latest KMA aviation forecast for resolution site Incheon International Airport projects a maximum of 13°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring cooler outcomes amid potential cold air advection from a lingering upper trough. However, KMA's March 30 mid-term update suggested 16°C for nearby Seoul with mostly cloudy conditions, highlighting discrepancies in cloud cover and solar insolation projections across ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Early April climatology shows typical highs of 14–17°C, but frontal timing and boundary layer stability could swing results by 2–3°C; watch KMA's afternoon short-term update for refined guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 2?
16°C or higher 24.7%
15°C 25%
14°C 17%
13°C 16%
$52,465 Объем
$52,465 Объем
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
9%
12°C
14%
13°C
16%
14°C
17%
15°C
25%
16°C or higher
25%
16°C or higher 24.7%
15°C 25%
14°C 17%
13°C 16%
$52,465 Объем
$52,465 Объем
6°C or below
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
9%
12°C
14%
13°C
16%
14°C
17%
15°C
25%
16°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seoul-area forecasts for April 2, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 13–16°C due to divergent model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The latest KMA aviation forecast for resolution site Incheon International Airport projects a maximum of 13°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, favoring cooler outcomes amid potential cold air advection from a lingering upper trough. However, KMA's March 30 mid-term update suggested 16°C for nearby Seoul with mostly cloudy conditions, highlighting discrepancies in cloud cover and solar insolation projections across ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Early April climatology shows typical highs of 14–17°C, but frontal timing and boundary layer stability could swing results by 2–3°C; watch KMA's afternoon short-term update for refined guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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