Trader consensus leans toward a 23°C high in Chengdu on March 26 (31.5% implied probability), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF model runs projecting a midday peak of 22.5–23.5°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating the tight race with 24°C (23.5%) and 22°C (20.5%) are subtle model divergences: GFS forecasts slightly higher due to enhanced boundary layer mixing under clearer skies, while ICON emphasizes lingering stratocumulus suppressing insolation. Recent developments include a departed cold front allowing diurnal warming from a 15°C morning low, though urban heat island effects and potential afternoon showers add uncertainty. Historical late-March maxima average 18–20°C, but this year's El Niño-boosted pattern supports the elevated odds. Watch CMA's 0600 UTC update for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
23°C 32%
24°C 24%
22°C 21%
25°C 14%
$11,802 Объем
$11,802 Объем
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
11%
22°C
21%
23°C
32%
24°C
24%
25°C
14%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
23°C 32%
24°C 24%
22°C 21%
25°C 14%
$11,802 Объем
$11,802 Объем
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
11%
22°C
21%
23°C
32%
24°C
24%
25°C
14%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus leans toward a 23°C high in Chengdu on March 26 (31.5% implied probability), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF model runs projecting a midday peak of 22.5–23.5°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating the tight race with 24°C (23.5%) and 22°C (20.5%) are subtle model divergences: GFS forecasts slightly higher due to enhanced boundary layer mixing under clearer skies, while ICON emphasizes lingering stratocumulus suppressing insolation. Recent developments include a departed cold front allowing diurnal warming from a 15°C morning low, though urban heat island effects and potential afternoon showers add uncertainty. Historical late-March maxima average 18–20°C, but this year's El Niño-boosted pattern supports the elevated odds. Watch CMA's 0600 UTC update for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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