Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median forecast of 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—buoyed by robust AI-related capital expenditures and fiscal tailwinds amid resilient private demand. This edges out the 1.5–2.0% bin at 13.7%, despite Q4 2025 growth revised down to 0.7% annualized (BEA March 13) and February nonfarm payrolls contracting 92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 at 2.0% as of March 23, signaling potential rebound; the April 30 Q1 advance estimate looms as a pivotal catalyst for year-end trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРост ВВП в 2026 году
Рост ВВП в 2026 году
>2,5% 62%
1,5–2,0% 13.7%
<0,5% 10.0%
2,0–2,5% 9%
$25,066 Объем
$25,066 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
10%
0,5–1,0%
4%
1,0–1,5%
7%
1,5–2,0%
14%
2,0–2,5%
9%
>2,5%
62%
>2,5% 62%
1,5–2,0% 13.7%
<0,5% 10.0%
2,0–2,5% 9%
$25,066 Объем
$25,066 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$3,681 Объем
10%
0,5–1,0%
$14,955 Объем
4%
1,0–1,5%
$1,432 Объем
7%
1,5–2,0%
$0 Объем
14%
2,0–2,5%
$1,338 Объем
9%
>2,5%
$3,660 Объем
62%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median forecast of 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—buoyed by robust AI-related capital expenditures and fiscal tailwinds amid resilient private demand. This edges out the 1.5–2.0% bin at 13.7%, despite Q4 2025 growth revised down to 0.7% annualized (BEA March 13) and February nonfarm payrolls contracting 92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 at 2.0% as of March 23, signaling potential rebound; the April 30 Q1 advance estimate looms as a pivotal catalyst for year-end trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$25,066Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median forecast of 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—buoyed by robust AI-related capital expenditures and fiscal tailwinds amid resilient private demand. This edges out the 1.5–2.0% bin at 13.7%, despite Q4 2025 growth revised down to 0.7% annualized (BEA March 13) and February nonfarm payrolls contracting 92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 at 2.0% as of March 23, signaling potential rebound; the April 30 Q1 advance estimate looms as a pivotal catalyst for year-end trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$25,066Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections median forecast of 2.4%—up from December's 2.3%—buoyed by robust AI-related capital expenditures and fiscal tailwinds amid resilient private demand. This edges out the 1.5–2.0% bin at 13.7%, despite Q4 2025 growth revised down to 0.7% annualized (BEA March 13) and February nonfarm payrolls contracting 92,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.4%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q1 at 2.0% as of March 23, signaling potential rebound; the April 30 Q1 advance estimate looms as a pivotal catalyst for year-end trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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