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Eleições·Trump

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12

Market icon
Eleições·Trump

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12

Micah Lasher 41%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 17%

George Conway 3.8%

Polymarket

$93,555 Vol.

Micah Lasher 41%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 17%

George Conway 3.8%

Polymarket

$93,555 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,454 Vol.

37%

Alex Bores

$2,750 Vol.

31%

Jack Schlossberg

$4,947 Vol.

17%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

4%

Erik Bottcher

$1,690 Vol.

7%

Liz Krueger

$28,416 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,636 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,239 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,349 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,755 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,216 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,626 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic Primary tilts toward Micah Lasher at 40% implied probability, with Alex Bores close behind at 30.5% and Jack Schlossberg at 16%, underscoring a fragmented field ahead of the June 25 vote in the safely Democratic Manhattan district. Lasher's edge stems from recent endorsements by local Democratic organizations and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo allies, bolstering his establishment credentials after last week's key Manhattan club nod. Bores sustains pressure via superior fundraising, reporting over $1.8 million raised in the latest filings, appealing to progressive voters. Schlossberg's Kennedy name recognition and viral social media campaign draw younger demographics. Absent public polling, the race remains fluid; an upcoming candidate debate and final pre-primary endorsements could tip momentum among splintered voting blocs.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$93,555
Data de Término
Jun 23, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic Primary tilts toward Micah Lasher at 40% implied probability, with Alex Bores close behind at 30.5% and Jack Schlossberg at 16%, underscoring a fragmented field ahead of the June 25 vote in the safely Democratic Manhattan district. Lasher's edge stems from recent endorsements by local Democratic organizations and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo allies, bolstering his establishment credentials after last week's key Manhattan club nod. Bores sustains pressure via superior fundraising, reporting over $1.8 million raised in the latest filings, appealing to progressive voters. Schlossberg's Kennedy name recognition and viral social media campaign draw younger demographics. Absent public polling, the race remains fluid; an upcoming candidate debate and final pre-primary endorsements could tip momentum among splintered voting blocs.

Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic Primary tilts toward Micah Lasher at 40% implied probability, with Alex Bores close behind at 30.5% and Jack Schlossberg at 16%, underscoring a fragmented field ahead of the June 25 vote in the safely Democratic Manhattan district. Lasher's edge stems from recent endorsements by local Democratic organizations and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo allies, bolstering his establishment credentials after last week's key Manhattan club nod. Bores sustains pressure via superior fundraising, reporting over $1.8 million raised in the latest filings, appealing to progressive voters. Schlossberg's Kennedy name recognition and viral social media campaign draw younger demographics. Absent public polling, the race remains fluid; an upcoming candidate debate and final pre-primary endorsements could tip momentum among splintered voting blocs.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 37%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" has generated $93.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" is "Micah Lasher" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.