Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04

Name: Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04
Start: 2026-01-28T23:37:41.847Z
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Eleições·4 De Novembro Eleições

Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04

$19,164 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Partido Republicano

$10,249 Vol.

80%

Partido Democrata

$8,915 Vol.

16%

$19,164 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Partido Republicano

$10,249 Vol.

80%

Partido Democrata

$8,915 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse commands a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Mary Baechler in the latest pre-election polls for Washington's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+22 that favors GOP retention. Trader consensus pricing Republican victory at 81.5% stems from Newhouse's decisive August primary win despite past tensions with former President Trump, sustained polling advantages averaging 15-20 points, and robust fundraising outpacing Democrats in this rural, agricultural battleground. Absent a late October surprise, early voting trends and historical incumbency advantages in safe districts underpin the lopsided odds ahead of the November 5 general election.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 25, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Partido Republicano" at 80%, followed by "Partido Democrata" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" has generated $19.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" is "Partido Republicano" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Partido Democrata" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $19.2K traded on “Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 80¢ for "Partido Republicano" in the "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 80% chance that "Partido Republicano" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 80¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 20¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Nov 3, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04

Vencedor da eleição para a Casa WA-04

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Frequently Asked Questions

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