Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the first-round winner in Peru's 2026 presidential election, reflecting a 55% implied probability driven by his strong polling among conservative voters and momentum from prior 2021 performance where he placed third. Jorge Nieto trails at 28%, bolstered by his technocratic background as ex-prime minister and recent party endorsements amid ongoing political instability under President Boluarte. A cluster of candidates like Roberto Sánchez Palomino, Fiorella Molinelli, and Yonhy Lescano hover around 26%, signaling fragmented opposition fields; lower odds for figures like Keiko Fujimori stem from legal hurdles and voter fatigue. Recent polls and candidacy filings have sharpened focus on right-leaning frontrunners, with nationwide unrest potentially boosting anti-establishment sentiment ahead of primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoRafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 19%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 18%
Yonhy Lescano 17%

Rafael López Aliaga
54%

Jorge Nieto
19%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
18%

Yonhy Lescano
17%

Roberto Chiabra
17%

José Williams
17%

Fernando Olivera
17%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
17%

Marisol Pérez Tello
17%

Mario Vizcarra
17%

César Acuña
17%

José Luna
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Alfonso López Chau
17%

Enrique Valderrama
17%

Ricardo Belmont
17%

Mesías Guevara
17%

Fiorella Molinelli
16%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

George Forsyth
6%
Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 19%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 18%
Yonhy Lescano 17%

Rafael López Aliaga
54%

Jorge Nieto
19%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
18%

Yonhy Lescano
17%

Roberto Chiabra
17%

José Williams
17%

Fernando Olivera
17%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
17%

Marisol Pérez Tello
17%

Mario Vizcarra
17%

César Acuña
17%

José Luna
17%

Carlos Álvarez
17%

Alfonso López Chau
17%

Enrique Valderrama
17%

Ricardo Belmont
17%

Mesías Guevara
17%

Fiorella Molinelli
16%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
11%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the first-round winner in Peru's 2026 presidential election, reflecting a 55% implied probability driven by his strong polling among conservative voters and momentum from prior 2021 performance where he placed third. Jorge Nieto trails at 28%, bolstered by his technocratic background as ex-prime minister and recent party endorsements amid ongoing political instability under President Boluarte. A cluster of candidates like Roberto Sánchez Palomino, Fiorella Molinelli, and Yonhy Lescano hover around 26%, signaling fragmented opposition fields; lower odds for figures like Keiko Fujimori stem from legal hurdles and voter fatigue. Recent polls and candidacy filings have sharpened focus on right-leaning frontrunners, with nationwide unrest potentially boosting anti-establishment sentiment ahead of primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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