Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices SPD at near-certainty for second place in the Rheinland-Pfalz Landtag election, driven by consistent polls showing CDU's commanding lead for first at 35-38% and SPD's solid 27-30% share well ahead of challengers. Incumbent Minister-President Malu Dreyer's sustained popularity bolsters SPD's regional strength amid stable voter support, while Greens hover at 12-14%, AfD at 9-11%, and newer entrants like BSW remain marginal. This hierarchy has held across recent Forsa and INSA surveys with minimal shifts. Realistic challenges would require a dramatic AfD surge, Green rebound, or CDU collapse—low-probability scenarios absent major scandals—ahead of the March 2026 vote, though September 2025 federal elections could indirectly influence state dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEleição Parlamentar Rheinland-Pfalz: 2º Lugar
Eleição Parlamentar Rheinland-Pfalz: 2º Lugar
SPD 100.0%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
AfD <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
CDU
Não
SPD
Sim
Linke
Não
AfD
Não
Grüne
Não
FW
Não
BSW
Não
FDP
Não
SPD 100.0%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
AfD <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
CDU
$0 Vol.
Não
SPD
$0 Vol.
Sim
Linke
$0 Vol.
Não
AfD
$0 Vol.
Não
Grüne
$0 Vol.
Não
FW
$0 Vol.
Não
BSW
$0 Vol.
Não
FDP
$0 Vol.
Não
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices SPD at near-certainty for second place in the Rheinland-Pfalz Landtag election, driven by consistent polls showing CDU's commanding lead for first at 35-38% and SPD's solid 27-30% share well ahead of challengers. Incumbent Minister-President Malu Dreyer's sustained popularity bolsters SPD's regional strength amid stable voter support, while Greens hover at 12-14%, AfD at 9-11%, and newer entrants like BSW remain marginal. This hierarchy has held across recent Forsa and INSA surveys with minimal shifts. Realistic challenges would require a dramatic AfD surge, Green rebound, or CDU collapse—low-probability scenarios absent major scandals—ahead of the March 2026 vote, though September 2025 federal elections could indirectly influence state dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices SPD at near-certainty for second place in the Rheinland-Pfalz Landtag election, driven by consistent polls showing CDU's commanding lead for first at 35-38% and SPD's solid 27-30% share well ahead of challengers. Incumbent Minister-President Malu Dreyer's sustained popularity bolsters SPD's regional strength amid stable voter support, while Greens hover at 12-14%, AfD at 9-11%, and newer entrants like BSW remain marginal. This hierarchy has held across recent Forsa and INSA surveys with minimal shifts. Realistic challenges would require a dramatic AfD surge, Green rebound, or CDU collapse—low-probability scenarios absent major scandals—ahead of the March 2026 vote, though September 2025 federal elections could indirectly influence state dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)
Volume
$0Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices SPD at near-certainty for second place in the Rheinland-Pfalz Landtag election, driven by consistent polls showing CDU's commanding lead for first at 35-38% and SPD's solid 27-30% share well ahead of challengers. Incumbent Minister-President Malu Dreyer's sustained popularity bolsters SPD's regional strength amid stable voter support, while Greens hover at 12-14%, AfD at 9-11%, and newer entrants like BSW remain marginal. This hierarchy has held across recent Forsa and INSA surveys with minimal shifts. Realistic challenges would require a dramatic AfD surge, Green rebound, or CDU collapse—low-probability scenarios absent major scandals—ahead of the March 2026 vote, though September 2025 federal elections could indirectly influence state dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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