JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18% implied probability, bolstered by his selection as Vice President-elect alongside President-elect Donald Trump, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner and potential heir apparent amid strong party loyalty. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, gaining traction as a prominent Democratic governor criticizing the party's 2024 performance and eyeing a national bid in a post-Harris landscape lacking a clear successor. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects his Senate seniority and Trump cabinet considerations, keeping the GOP field competitive. This tight race persists due to the early stage—primaries over three years away—with 2026 midterms, Trump's administration track record, scandals, or economic shifts poised to create separation by reshaping paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,516,715 Vol.
$454,516,715 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$454,516,715 Vol.
$454,516,715 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 18% implied probability, bolstered by his selection as Vice President-elect alongside President-elect Donald Trump, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner and potential heir apparent amid strong party loyalty. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, gaining traction as a prominent Democratic governor criticizing the party's 2024 performance and eyeing a national bid in a post-Harris landscape lacking a clear successor. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects his Senate seniority and Trump cabinet considerations, keeping the GOP field competitive. This tight race persists due to the early stage—primaries over three years away—with 2026 midterms, Trump's administration track record, scandals, or economic shifts poised to create separation by reshaping paths to nomination and Electoral College viability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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