JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.9%, bolstered by his role as vice president-elect under President-elect Donald Trump, which provides incumbency advantages, party loyalty, and a clear path-to-victory in Republican primaries following the 2024 GOP landslide. Gavin Newsom follows closely at 16.8%, leveraging his California governorship and national profile amid Democratic post-election reassessment after Kamala Harris's loss. Marco Rubio's 11.2% surged with his Secretary of State nomination, enhancing his foreign policy credentials. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty, with dynamics hinging on Trump's administration performance, 2026 midterms, economic trends, and primary turnout; scandals, midterm shifts, or standout governorship records could create separation among contenders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$454,280,393 Vol.
$454,280,393 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$454,280,393 Vol.
$454,280,393 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
2%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.9%, bolstered by his role as vice president-elect under President-elect Donald Trump, which provides incumbency advantages, party loyalty, and a clear path-to-victory in Republican primaries following the 2024 GOP landslide. Gavin Newsom follows closely at 16.8%, leveraging his California governorship and national profile amid Democratic post-election reassessment after Kamala Harris's loss. Marco Rubio's 11.2% surged with his Secretary of State nomination, enhancing his foreign policy credentials. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty, with dynamics hinging on Trump's administration performance, 2026 midterms, economic trends, and primary turnout; scandals, midterm shifts, or standout governorship records could create separation among contenders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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