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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.6%

Polymarket

$466,783,497 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.6%

Polymarket

$466,783,497 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,051,117 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,648,808 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,235,125 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,325,585 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,888,709 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,134,716 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,416,815 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,291,377 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,370,003 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,432,571 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,171,375 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,733,507 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,541,476 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,698,389 Vol.

1%

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Andy Beshear

$14,873,348 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,938,223 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,007,105 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,608,675 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,458,097 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,264,597 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,157,743 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,487,372 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,309,321 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,829,761 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,430,085 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,232,210 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,049,525 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,278,281 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,645,149 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,071,099 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,158,677 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,825,497 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,763,717 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,673,936 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,186,247 Vol.

<1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,608,110 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting an open-field contest after President Trump's term-limited second term. Recent Middle East escalations, including U.S. actions against Iran, have eroded Vance's early lead—his implied probabilities dipped to new lows—while elevating Secretary of State Marco Rubio via donor backing, Trump donor polling favoring him over Vance, and high-profile diplomacy like Venezuela operations. Newsom tops Democratic early polls like Emerson's, positioning him as the party's frontrunner post-2024 regrouping. The race stays tight absent primaries until 2027, with 2026 midterms, Trump endorsements, and GOP base turnout key to separation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting an open-field contest after President Trump's term-limited second term. Recent Middle East escalations, including U.S. actions against Iran, have eroded Vance's early lead—his implied probabilities dipped to new lows—while elevating Secretary of State Marco Rubio via donor backing, Trump donor polling favoring him over Vance, and high-profile diplomacy like Venezuela operations. Newsom tops Democratic early polls like Emerson's, positioning him as the party's frontrunner post-2024 regrouping. The race stays tight absent primaries until 2027, with 2026 midterms, Trump endorsements, and GOP base turnout key to separation.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting an open-field contest after President Trump's term-limited second term. Recent Middle East escalations, including U.S. actions against Iran, have eroded Vance's early lead—his implied probabilities dipped to new lows—while elevating Secretary of State Marco Rubio via donor backing, Trump donor polling favoring him over Vance, and high-profile diplomacy like Venezuela operations. Newsom tops Democratic early polls like Emerson's, positioning him as the party's frontrunner post-2024 regrouping. The race stays tight absent primaries until 2027, with 2026 midterms, Trump endorsements, and GOP base turnout key to separation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election, reflecting an open-field contest after President Trump's term-limited second term. Recent Middle East escalations, including U.S. actions against Iran, have eroded Vance's early lead—his implied probabilities dipped to new lows—while elevating Secretary of State Marco Rubio via donor backing, Trump donor polling favoring him over Vance, and high-profile diplomacy like Venezuela operations. Newsom tops Democratic early polls like Emerson's, positioning him as the party's frontrunner post-2024 regrouping. The race stays tight absent primaries until 2027, with 2026 midterms, Trump endorsements, and GOP base turnout key to separation.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $466.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.