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Eleições·Primárias

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Eleições·Primárias

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

John Cavanaugh 85%

Denise Powell 9%

Evangelos Argyrakis 5.0%

Mark Johnston 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

John Cavanaugh 85%

Denise Powell 9%

Evangelos Argyrakis 5.0%

Mark Johnston 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

John Cavanaugh

$3,186 Vol.

85%

Denise Powell

$184 Vol.

9%

Evangelos Argyrakis

$235 Vol.

5%

Mark Johnston

$1,435 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. John Cavanaugh commands 85% trader consensus in the NE-02 Democratic primary market, driven by his substantial lead in the latest Emerson College poll (48% support) and superior fundraising, outpacing rivals by wide margins. With early voting underway ahead of the May 14 primary, his state legislative experience and endorsements from Nebraska Democratic leaders reinforce frontrunner status, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this low-turnout primary. Denise Powell holds 9% on progressive backing but trails in polls and resources, while Evangelos Argyrakis (5.1%) and Mark Johnston (2.8%) draw limited support amid no major shifts in the past week. A late scandal or turnout surge could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Cavanaugh.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,040
Data de Término
May 12, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. John Cavanaugh commands 85% trader consensus in the NE-02 Democratic primary market, driven by his substantial lead in the latest Emerson College poll (48% support) and superior fundraising, outpacing rivals by wide margins. With early voting underway ahead of the May 14 primary, his state legislative experience and endorsements from Nebraska Democratic leaders reinforce frontrunner status, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this low-turnout primary. Denise Powell holds 9% on progressive backing but trails in polls and resources, while Evangelos Argyrakis (5.1%) and Mark Johnston (2.8%) draw limited support amid no major shifts in the past week. A late scandal or turnout surge could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Cavanaugh.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh commands 85% trader consensus in the NE-02 Democratic primary market, driven by his substantial lead in the latest Emerson College poll (48% support) and superior fundraising, outpacing rivals by wide margins. With early voting underway ahead of the May 14 primary, his state legislative experience and endorsements from Nebraska Democratic leaders reinforce frontrunner status, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this low-turnout primary. Denise Powell holds 9% on progressive backing but trails in polls and resources, while Evangelos Argyrakis (5.1%) and Mark Johnston (2.8%) draw limited support amid no major shifts in the past week. A late scandal or turnout surge could narrow the gap, though structural advantages favor Cavanaugh.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Cavanaugh" at 85%, followed by "Denise Powell" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "John Cavanaugh" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Denise Powell" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.