Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison prospects remains tightly contested, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging "60+" months at 28.5%, driven by his firm control over Venezuela's military, judiciary, and security forces despite the disputed July presidential election. The opposition's fraud claims, led by exiled candidate Edmundo González, have fueled international non-recognition from the US, EU, and others, alongside ICC investigations into crimes against humanity and US narco-terrorism indictments—keeping lengthy sentences viable. Recent Supreme Tribunal of Justice rulings rejecting recounts and opposition challenges have steadied no-prison odds, but simmering protests, sanctions, and potential January 10 inauguration unrest could tip the balance toward arrest or regime pressure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSem pena de prisão 34%
60+ 29%
40–60 16%
20–40 9.4%
$444,351 Vol.
$444,351 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sem pena de prisão
34%
<20
9%
20–40
9%
40–60
16%
60+
29%
Sem pena de prisão 34%
60+ 29%
40–60 16%
20–40 9.4%
$444,351 Vol.
$444,351 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sem pena de prisão
$348,977 Vol.
34%
<20
$27,606 Vol.
9%
20–40
$26,660 Vol.
9%
40–60
$12,539 Vol.
16%
60+
$28,569 Vol.
29%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison prospects remains tightly contested, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging "60+" months at 28.5%, driven by his firm control over Venezuela's military, judiciary, and security forces despite the disputed July presidential election. The opposition's fraud claims, led by exiled candidate Edmundo González, have fueled international non-recognition from the US, EU, and others, alongside ICC investigations into crimes against humanity and US narco-terrorism indictments—keeping lengthy sentences viable. Recent Supreme Tribunal of Justice rulings rejecting recounts and opposition challenges have steadied no-prison odds, but simmering protests, sanctions, and potential January 10 inauguration unrest could tip the balance toward arrest or regime pressure.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$444,351Data de Término
Dec 31, 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison prospects remains tightly contested, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging "60+" months at 28.5%, driven by his firm control over Venezuela's military, judiciary, and security forces despite the disputed July presidential election. The opposition's fraud claims, led by exiled candidate Edmundo González, have fueled international non-recognition from the US, EU, and others, alongside ICC investigations into crimes against humanity and US narco-terrorism indictments—keeping lengthy sentences viable. Recent Supreme Tribunal of Justice rulings rejecting recounts and opposition challenges have steadied no-prison odds, but simmering protests, sanctions, and potential January 10 inauguration unrest could tip the balance toward arrest or regime pressure.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,351Data de Término
Dec 31, 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison prospects remains tightly contested, with "No prison time" at 33.5% edging "60+" months at 28.5%, driven by his firm control over Venezuela's military, judiciary, and security forces despite the disputed July presidential election. The opposition's fraud claims, led by exiled candidate Edmundo González, have fueled international non-recognition from the US, EU, and others, alongside ICC investigations into crimes against humanity and US narco-terrorism indictments—keeping lengthy sentences viable. Recent Supreme Tribunal of Justice rulings rejecting recounts and opposition challenges have steadied no-prison odds, but simmering protests, sanctions, and potential January 10 inauguration unrest could tip the balance toward arrest or regime pressure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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