Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, anchors the 85% trader consensus for a GOP victory, bolstered by his 2020 general election margin of 11 points and forecasters' unanimous Solid/Safe Republican ratings. A fragmented Democratic primary featuring eight lower-profile candidates—including recent entrants former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11) and veteran Noah Taylor (March 17)—dilutes opposition without a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids, who remains uncommitted despite February speculation. Marshall's late February statewide tour highlighted tax cuts, while pastor Adam Hamilton launched an independent exploratory effort March 1. Absent public polling, odds reflect entrenched partisan math ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and August 4 primary.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
85%
Democrata
15%
$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republicano
$7,300 Vol.
85%
Democrata
$6,158 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, anchors the 85% trader consensus for a GOP victory, bolstered by his 2020 general election margin of 11 points and forecasters' unanimous Solid/Safe Republican ratings. A fragmented Democratic primary featuring eight lower-profile candidates—including recent entrants former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11) and veteran Noah Taylor (March 17)—dilutes opposition without a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids, who remains uncommitted despite February speculation. Marshall's late February statewide tour highlighted tax cuts, while pastor Adam Hamilton launched an independent exploratory effort March 1. Absent public polling, odds reflect entrenched partisan math ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$13,459Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, anchors the 85% trader consensus for a GOP victory, bolstered by his 2020 general election margin of 11 points and forecasters' unanimous Solid/Safe Republican ratings. A fragmented Democratic primary featuring eight lower-profile candidates—including recent entrants former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11) and veteran Noah Taylor (March 17)—dilutes opposition without a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids, who remains uncommitted despite February speculation. Marshall's late February statewide tour highlighted tax cuts, while pastor Adam Hamilton launched an independent exploratory effort March 1. Absent public polling, odds reflect entrenched partisan math ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$13,459Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's (R) reelection bid in solidly Republican Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, anchors the 85% trader consensus for a GOP victory, bolstered by his 2020 general election margin of 11 points and forecasters' unanimous Solid/Safe Republican ratings. A fragmented Democratic primary featuring eight lower-profile candidates—including recent entrants former prosecutor Jason Hart (March 11) and veteran Noah Taylor (March 17)—dilutes opposition without a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids, who remains uncommitted despite February speculation. Marshall's late February statewide tour highlighted tax cuts, while pastor Adam Hamilton launched an independent exploratory effort March 1. Absent public polling, odds reflect entrenched partisan math ahead of the June 1 filing deadline and August 4 primary.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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