Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 14–17°C outcomes for Milan's March 27 high temperature, with model means clustering around 15–16°C under a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly airflow from the Mediterranean. Trader consensus favors 17°C (23.5%) and 16°C (23.0%) slightly over cooler options due to persistent urban heat island effects amplifying readings at Milan's Centro Metropolitana station by 1–2°C, per historical ARPA Lombardia data. Differentiators include potential overnight cloud cover suppressing morning recovery—favoring 14–15°C if thicker—or clearer skies boosting to 17°C+. Short-range uncertainty persists as 00Z runs refine jet stream positioning, with 18°C+ odds low absent föhn winds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 27?
17°C 24%
16°C 23%
15°C 20%
14°C 20%
8°C or below
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
7%
11°C
10%
12°C
10%
13°C
10%
14°C
20%
15°C
20%
16°C
23%
17°C
24%
18°C or higher
13%
17°C 24%
16°C 23%
15°C 20%
14°C 20%
8°C or below
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
7%
11°C
10%
12°C
10%
13°C
10%
14°C
20%
15°C
20%
16°C
23%
17°C
24%
18°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 14–17°C outcomes for Milan's March 27 high temperature, with model means clustering around 15–16°C under a mild high-pressure ridge ushering southerly airflow from the Mediterranean. Trader consensus favors 17°C (23.5%) and 16°C (23.0%) slightly over cooler options due to persistent urban heat island effects amplifying readings at Milan's Centro Metropolitana station by 1–2°C, per historical ARPA Lombardia data. Differentiators include potential overnight cloud cover suppressing morning recovery—favoring 14–15°C if thicker—or clearer skies boosting to 17°C+. Short-range uncertainty persists as 00Z runs refine jet stream positioning, with 18°C+ odds low absent föhn winds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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