Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Name: Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia
Start: 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia — Discussão

10G · 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z

Discussão sobre Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia. Os traders compartilham insights e previsões no Polymarket.

Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Eric Swalwell 53%

Tom Steyer 12.3%

Steve Hilton 9.8%

Matt Mahan 8%

$6,881,021 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$100,272 Vol.

53%

Tom Steyer

$2,634,904 Vol.

12%

Steve Hilton

$683,875 Vol.

10%

Matt Mahan

$167,252 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$53,626 Vol.

Katie Porter

$595,254 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$671,367 Vol.

Eleni Kounalakis

$214,260 Vol.

Nicole Shanahan

$147,064 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$124,855 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$172,412 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$136,099 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$113,987 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$291,652 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$76,317 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$64,660 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$163,658 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$21,652 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$115,005 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$131,647 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$53,357 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$89,627 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$58,335 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell 53%

Tom Steyer 12.3%

Steve Hilton 9.8%

Matt Mahan 8%

$6,881,021 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$100,272 Vol.

53%

Tom Steyer

$2,634,904 Vol.

12%

Steve Hilton

$683,875 Vol.

10%

Matt Mahan

$167,252 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$53,626 Vol.

Katie Porter

$595,254 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$671,367 Vol.

Eleni Kounalakis

$214,260 Vol.

Nicole Shanahan

$147,064 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$124,855 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$172,412 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$136,099 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$113,987 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$291,652 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$76,317 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$64,660 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$163,658 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$21,652 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$115,005 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$131,647 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$53,357 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$89,627 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$58,335 Vol.

<1%

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Rep. Eric Swalwell a 53% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his lead in the March 11 Emerson College poll of the June nonpartisan top-two primary, where he tops a splintered Democratic field amid 25% undecided voters in an open seat race succeeding term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. Billionaire Tom Steyer at 12% gains from self-funding surges noted in February polling, while Republican Steve Hilton's 10% reflects GOP strength in recent surveys warning of Democratic vote-splitting risks that could advance two Republicans to November. Intensifying attacks on Swalwell from left and right highlight primary volatility ahead.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 28, 2026, 8:32 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 54%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is "Eric Swalwell" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $6.9 million traded on “Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 54¢ for "Eric Swalwell" in the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 54% chance that "Eric Swalwell" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 54¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 46¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Nov 3, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market has an active community of 15 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (15)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What are the current odds for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

How will "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" be resolved?

Can I follow "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What does a price of 54¢ for "Eric Swalwell" mean?

When does the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market close?

What are traders saying about "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What is Polymarket?