Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability against a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, reflecting the central bank's March 18 decision to hold the overnight target at 2.25% amid cooling inflation—February CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year from 2.3% prior—coupled with softening GDP growth signaling a soft landing. This stance aligns with the January Monetary Policy Report's projection of inflation stabilizing near 2% and modest 1.25% economic expansion. However, recent supply shocks from the Iran conflict have spiked energy prices, prompting money markets to price in over 20% odds of an April hike and up to three moves this year, though economists largely anticipate holds through 2026. Key catalysts include the April 29 rate announcement and March CPI data.