Polymarket traders imply a 67.5% probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, reflecting heightened inflation risks from Middle East conflicts driving global energy prices higher and stalling UK CPI disinflation at 3% through February, well above the 2% target. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its March 18 meeting, but upgraded Q3 inflation forecasts to 3.5% amid these shocks, fueling expectations for tighter policy despite Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks cautioning markets against prematurely pricing hikes. Broker surveys point to one or two increases, with the April 30 MPC meeting as the immediate catalyst amid resilient labor conditions and sticky services inflation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$15,122 Vol.
$15,122 Vol.
Sim
$15,122 Vol.
$15,122 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders imply a 67.5% probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, reflecting heightened inflation risks from Middle East conflicts driving global energy prices higher and stalling UK CPI disinflation at 3% through February, well above the 2% target. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its March 18 meeting, but upgraded Q3 inflation forecasts to 3.5% amid these shocks, fueling expectations for tighter policy despite Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks cautioning markets against prematurely pricing hikes. Broker surveys point to one or two increases, with the April 30 MPC meeting as the immediate catalyst amid resilient labor conditions and sticky services inflation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions