Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6 percent for 2026 amid energy price increases tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening stance. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent through late April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year. This combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins the 96.6 percent trader consensus for a rate hike occurring in 2026. A rapid reduction in energy costs from de-escalation or materially weaker growth and core inflation readings remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$124,614 Vol.
$124,614 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$124,614 Vol.
$124,614 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6 percent for 2026 amid energy price increases tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening stance. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent through late April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year. This combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins the 96.6 percent trader consensus for a rate hike occurring in 2026. A rapid reduction in energy costs from de-escalation or materially weaker growth and core inflation readings remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$124,614Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6 percent for 2026 amid energy price increases tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening stance. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent through late April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year. This combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins the 96.6 percent trader consensus for a rate hike occurring in 2026. A rapid reduction in energy costs from de-escalation or materially weaker growth and core inflation readings remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,614Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6 percent for 2026 amid energy price increases tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening stance. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent through late April and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures now price at least one or two 25-basis-point hikes this year. This combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins the 96.6 percent trader consensus for a rate hike occurring in 2026. A rapid reduction in energy costs from de-escalation or materially weaker growth and core inflation readings remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the trajectory.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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