Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy prices amid the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held key interest rates steady around 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates near 2%, signaling heightened vigilance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for rate hikes as early as the April 29-30 policy decision if pressures persist, aligning with major banks forecasting multiple increases. This hawkish repricing amid sticky core inflation and geopolitical risks underpins trader consensus implying a 78% probability of at least one ECB rate hike in 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$83,915 Vol.
$83,915 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$83,915 Vol.
$83,915 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy prices amid the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held key interest rates steady around 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates near 2%, signaling heightened vigilance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for rate hikes as early as the April 29-30 policy decision if pressures persist, aligning with major banks forecasting multiple increases. This hawkish repricing amid sticky core inflation and geopolitical risks underpins trader consensus implying a 78% probability of at least one ECB rate hike in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$83,915Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy prices amid the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held key interest rates steady around 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates near 2%, signaling heightened vigilance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for rate hikes as early as the April 29-30 policy decision if pressures persist, aligning with major banks forecasting multiple increases. This hawkish repricing amid sticky core inflation and geopolitical risks underpins trader consensus implying a 78% probability of at least one ECB rate hike in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,915Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy prices amid the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held key interest rates steady around 2% but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from prior estimates near 2%, signaling heightened vigilance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized readiness for rate hikes as early as the April 29-30 policy decision if pressures persist, aligning with major banks forecasting multiple increases. This hawkish repricing amid sticky core inflation and geopolitical risks underpins trader consensus implying a 78% probability of at least one ECB rate hike in 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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