Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in energy prices, pushing Eurozone headline inflation forecasts for 2026 above 2.6% and prompting the ECB to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. Recent Governing Council statements and surveys of economists now price in at least two quarter-point hikes this year, with the first potentially as early as June, reflecting upward revisions to inflation projections and warnings from officials that further action may be needed to anchor expectations. This consensus underpins the market's 96.7% probability of at least one rate increase occurring in 2026. Even with this positioning, a rapid de-escalation that lowers energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth data could still delay or avert hikes within the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$124,097 Vol.
$124,097 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$124,097 Vol.
$124,097 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in energy prices, pushing Eurozone headline inflation forecasts for 2026 above 2.6% and prompting the ECB to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. Recent Governing Council statements and surveys of economists now price in at least two quarter-point hikes this year, with the first potentially as early as June, reflecting upward revisions to inflation projections and warnings from officials that further action may be needed to anchor expectations. This consensus underpins the market's 96.7% probability of at least one rate increase occurring in 2026. Even with this positioning, a rapid de-escalation that lowers energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth data could still delay or avert hikes within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$124,097Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in energy prices, pushing Eurozone headline inflation forecasts for 2026 above 2.6% and prompting the ECB to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. Recent Governing Council statements and surveys of economists now price in at least two quarter-point hikes this year, with the first potentially as early as June, reflecting upward revisions to inflation projections and warnings from officials that further action may be needed to anchor expectations. This consensus underpins the market's 96.7% probability of at least one rate increase occurring in 2026. Even with this positioning, a rapid de-escalation that lowers energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth data could still delay or avert hikes within the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,097Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp increases in energy prices, pushing Eurozone headline inflation forecasts for 2026 above 2.6% and prompting the ECB to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter policy. Recent Governing Council statements and surveys of economists now price in at least two quarter-point hikes this year, with the first potentially as early as June, reflecting upward revisions to inflation projections and warnings from officials that further action may be needed to anchor expectations. This consensus underpins the market's 96.7% probability of at least one rate increase occurring in 2026. Even with this positioning, a rapid de-escalation that lowers energy costs or unexpectedly weak growth data could still delay or avert hikes within the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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