Eurozone headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy costs amid an Iran-related oil shock, prompting the ECB's Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its March 19 meeting while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%—well above the 2% target—and delaying target return until mid-2027. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays now project hikes starting as early as April or June, with ECB officials like Bundesbank President Nagel calling an April increase "an option" and others signaling readiness if pressures persist. Traders' 83.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift and swaps pricing 50 basis points of tightening, though resolution hinges on upcoming policy meetings through year-end amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Aumento da taxa do BCE em 2026?
Sim
$84,452 Vol.
$84,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$84,452 Vol.
$84,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy costs amid an Iran-related oil shock, prompting the ECB's Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its March 19 meeting while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%—well above the 2% target—and delaying target return until mid-2027. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays now project hikes starting as early as April or June, with ECB officials like Bundesbank President Nagel calling an April increase "an option" and others signaling readiness if pressures persist. Traders' 83.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift and swaps pricing 50 basis points of tightening, though resolution hinges on upcoming policy meetings through year-end amid geopolitical uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$84,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy costs amid an Iran-related oil shock, prompting the ECB's Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its March 19 meeting while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%—well above the 2% target—and delaying target return until mid-2027. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays now project hikes starting as early as April or June, with ECB officials like Bundesbank President Nagel calling an April increase "an option" and others signaling readiness if pressures persist. Traders' 83.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift and swaps pricing 50 basis points of tightening, though resolution hinges on upcoming policy meetings through year-end amid geopolitical uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$84,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by soaring energy costs amid an Iran-related oil shock, prompting the ECB's Governing Council to hold key rates steady at its March 19 meeting while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%—well above the 2% target—and delaying target return until mid-2027. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Barclays now project hikes starting as early as April or June, with ECB officials like Bundesbank President Nagel calling an April increase "an option" and others signaling readiness if pressures persist. Traders' 83.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift and swaps pricing 50 basis points of tightening, though resolution hinges on upcoming policy meetings through year-end amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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