Trader consensus on Polymarket's Balance of Power market prices a Democrats sweep of both House and Senate at 48.5%, driven by persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 3-6 points in March polls from YouGov, Morning Consult, and Quinnipiac, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party that average 25-seat House losses. Recent YouGov/Economist surveys show the edge narrowing to +3 as Republican support climbs amid low Trump approval on economy and foreign policy, yet forecasts like US Poll Watch project Democrats gaining a 231-204 House majority. The Senate map favors Republicans' defense but features competitive tossups in Georgia and Maine tilting Democratic, with R Senate/D House at 36.5% reflecting this balance ahead of summer primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEquilíbrio de Poder: Médio Prazo 2026
Equilíbrio de Poder: Médio Prazo 2026
Democratas Vencem Tudo 49%
Senado R, Câmara D 37%
Republicanos Varridos 15%
Senado D, Câmara R <1%
$4,214,279 Vol.
$4,214,279 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ganhe 4%
Democratas Vencem Tudo
49%
Senado D, Câmara R
1%
Senado R, Câmara D
37%
Republicanos Varridos
15%
Outros
<1%
Democratas Vencem Tudo 49%
Senado R, Câmara D 37%
Republicanos Varridos 15%
Senado D, Câmara R <1%
$4,214,279 Vol.
$4,214,279 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ganhe 4%
Democratas Vencem Tudo
$1,135,121 Vol.
49%
Senado D, Câmara R
$593,081 Vol.
1%
Senado R, Câmara D
$800,501 Vol.
37%
Republicanos Varridos
$882,718 Vol.
15%
Outros
$802,858 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Balance of Power market prices a Democrats sweep of both House and Senate at 48.5%, driven by persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 3-6 points in March polls from YouGov, Morning Consult, and Quinnipiac, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party that average 25-seat House losses. Recent YouGov/Economist surveys show the edge narrowing to +3 as Republican support climbs amid low Trump approval on economy and foreign policy, yet forecasts like US Poll Watch project Democrats gaining a 231-204 House majority. The Senate map favors Republicans' defense but features competitive tossups in Georgia and Maine tilting Democratic, with R Senate/D House at 36.5% reflecting this balance ahead of summer primaries.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$4,214,279Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Balance of Power market prices a Democrats sweep of both House and Senate at 48.5%, driven by persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 3-6 points in March polls from YouGov, Morning Consult, and Quinnipiac, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party that average 25-seat House losses. Recent YouGov/Economist surveys show the edge narrowing to +3 as Republican support climbs amid low Trump approval on economy and foreign policy, yet forecasts like US Poll Watch project Democrats gaining a 231-204 House majority. The Senate map favors Republicans' defense but features competitive tossups in Georgia and Maine tilting Democratic, with R Senate/D House at 36.5% reflecting this balance ahead of summer primaries.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$4,214,279Data de Término
Nov 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's Balance of Power market prices a Democrats sweep of both House and Senate at 48.5%, driven by persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 3-6 points in March polls from YouGov, Morning Consult, and Quinnipiac, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party that average 25-seat House losses. Recent YouGov/Economist surveys show the edge narrowing to +3 as Republican support climbs amid low Trump approval on economy and foreign policy, yet forecasts like US Poll Watch project Democrats gaining a 231-204 House majority. The Senate map favors Republicans' defense but features competitive tossups in Georgia and Maine tilting Democratic, with R Senate/D House at 36.5% reflecting this balance ahead of summer primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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