Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?

Polymarket

$198,350 Vol.

Polymarket

$198,350 Vol.

Abaixo de 190

$8,193 Vol.

35%

190-194

$5,138 Vol.

29%

195-199

$25,739 Vol.

10%

200-204

$19,742 Vol.

7%

205-209

$31,491 Vol.

6%

210-214

$10,390 Vol.

3%

215-219

$4,888 Vol.

5%

220-224

$50,162 Vol.

4%

225-229

$18,679 Vol.

2%

230+

$23,928 Vol.

1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans retaining around 190 House seats after the November 3, 2026 midterms, with below 190 (34.5%) and 190-194 (28.5%) as top outcomes amid a razor-thin current 218-214 majority. This positioning stems from historical midterm trends where the president's party—here Republicans under Trump—loses an average 26 seats, amplified by March generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead 47.6%-41.6% (RCP) or +5.5 (Silver Bulletin). Early ratings like Inside Elections' near-even split (213R-212D, 10 tossups) and Sabato's March 26 update highlight competitive battlegrounds in swing states, sustaining tightness despite Democratic polling edges. Shifts could arise from economic data, presidential approval, primaries, or turnout in key districts.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$198,350
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republicans retaining around 190 House seats after the November 3, 2026 midterms, with below 190 (34.5%) and 190-194 (28.5%) as top outcomes amid a razor-thin current 218-214 majority. This positioning stems from historical midterm trends where the president's party—here Republicans under Trump—loses an average 26 seats, amplified by March generic ballot polling averages showing Democrats ahead 47.6%-41.6% (RCP) or +5.5 (Silver Bulletin). Early ratings like Inside Elections' near-even split (213R-212D, 10 tossups) and Sabato's March 26 update highlight competitive battlegrounds in swing states, sustaining tightness despite Democratic polling edges. Shifts could arise from economic data, presidential approval, primaries, or turnout in key districts.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$198,350
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 190" at 35%, followed by "190-194" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" has generated $198.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" is "Abaixo de 190" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "190-194" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vagas republicanas na Câmara após as eleições de meio de mandato de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.