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Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jerry Carl 36%

James Dees 36%

Rhett Marques 36%

Joshua McKee 27%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,291 Vol.

Jerry Carl 36%

James Dees 36%

Rhett Marques 36%

Joshua McKee 27%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,291 Vol.

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

36%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

36%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

36%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

27%

John Mills

$14,754 Vol.

23%

James Richardson

$5,184 Vol.

20%

Austin Sidwell

$13,353 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a tight contest with incumbent Jerry Carl, James Dees, and Rhett Marques tied at 37% implied probability, driven by a fragmented seven-candidate field and the latest Alabama Poll from mid-March showing Carl at 28%, Marques at 19%, and 53% scattered among others and undecideds. Carl's lead has narrowed from 16 points six weeks prior, signaling vulnerability amid Marques' strong fundraising—over $875,000 raised—and early endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. High undecided rates and vote-splitting keep odds even; separation could stem from Trump endorsements, late advertising in Mobile County and Wiregrass battlegrounds, or candidate debates boosting name recognition before early voting.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a tight contest with incumbent Jerry Carl, James Dees, and Rhett Marques tied at 37% implied probability, driven by a fragmented seven-candidate field and the latest Alabama Poll from mid-March showing Carl at 28%, Marques at 19%, and 53% scattered among others and undecideds. Carl's lead has narrowed from 16 points six weeks prior, signaling vulnerability amid Marques' strong fundraising—over $875,000 raised—and early endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. High undecided rates and vote-splitting keep odds even; separation could stem from Trump endorsements, late advertising in Mobile County and Wiregrass battlegrounds, or candidate debates boosting name recognition before early voting.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a tight contest with incumbent Jerry Carl, James Dees, and Rhett Marques tied at 37% implied probability, driven by a fragmented seven-candidate field and the latest Alabama Poll from mid-March showing Carl at 28%, Marques at 19%, and 53% scattered among others and undecideds. Carl's lead has narrowed from 16 points six weeks prior, signaling vulnerability amid Marques' strong fundraising—over $875,000 raised—and early endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. High undecided rates and vote-splitting keep odds even; separation could stem from Trump endorsements, late advertising in Mobile County and Wiregrass battlegrounds, or candidate debates boosting name recognition before early voting.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, trader consensus reflects a tight contest with incumbent Jerry Carl, James Dees, and Rhett Marques tied at 37% implied probability, driven by a fragmented seven-candidate field and the latest Alabama Poll from mid-March showing Carl at 28%, Marques at 19%, and 53% scattered among others and undecideds. Carl's lead has narrowed from 16 points six weeks prior, signaling vulnerability amid Marques' strong fundraising—over $875,000 raised—and early endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. High undecided rates and vote-splitting keep odds even; separation could stem from Trump endorsements, late advertising in Mobile County and Wiregrass battlegrounds, or candidate debates boosting name recognition before early voting.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 37%, followed by "James Dees" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $33.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jerry Carl" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Dees" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.