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Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

<55%

70-75%

55-60%

75%+

60-65%

65-70%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Honduran Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Honduran Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Honduran Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the number of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 50,000 and 60,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that finishes in second place in this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the November 30 Honduran presidential election are annulled by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Honduras Tribunal de Justicia Electoral or another official body of the government of Honduras with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

If an official body of the government of Honduras with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until a ruling is publicly announced.

This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered.

The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Honduras and a consensus of credible reporting.

Honduras presidential election annulled by February 28?

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly in this election.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. 

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Uganda on January 15, 2026. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ugandan Government, specifically the Ugandan Electoral Commission (https://www.ec.or.ug/).

Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. 

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. 

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Senate election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Will Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moroccan general election is scheduled between October 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Moroccan election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Morocco; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Morocco snap election called by December 31?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

The 2025 Tongan general elections will be held on November 30, 2025, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga (Fale Alea ʻo Tonga).

This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minister of Tonga following the election.

Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Tonga is instated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Tonga, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Semisi Sika be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).

Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Elections for the autonomous community of Extremadura’s unicameral assembly are scheduled for December 21, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura (Asamblea de Extremadura) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next election for the Assembly of Extremadura does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party/coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party/coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If a listed coalition splits into individual parties prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura at the time of the split.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2025 Extremadura regional election?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the OR-05 House seat?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad), in this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the House of the Nation in this election. If additional seats are contested after the results of this election are made official (i.e. seats reserved for women are contested at a later date), those seats will not be considered for resolution of this market. If a second house of the Bangladeshi parliament is established, seats in that house will not be considered for resolution of this market.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).

Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

<55%
$199,176 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

55-60%
$52,013 Vol.
83%
0123456789
%

60-65%
$102,422 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

65-70%
$58,847 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

70-75%
$25,849 Vol.
<1%

75%+
$54,449 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Rules

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Market Context

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

About

Related

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

<55%$199,176 Vol.5%0123456789%buy Yes5.8¢buy No96.8¢

55-60%$52,013 Vol.83%0123456789%buy Yes84.8¢buy No18.5¢

60-65%$102,422 Vol.8%0123456789%buy Yes8.0¢buy No92.6¢

65-70%$58,847 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes2.0¢buy No99.9¢

70-75%$25,849 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

75%+$54,449 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Market Context

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Rules

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Market Context

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

About

Related

<55%
$199,176 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

55-60%
$52,013 Vol.
83%
0123456789
%

60-65%
$102,422 Vol.
8%
0123456789
%

65-70%
$58,847 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

70-75%
$25,849 Vol.
<1%

75%+
$54,449 Vol.
<1%