Market icon
Elections·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote

Market icon
Elections·Magyar

Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote

42-46% 32%

46-50% 25%

50-54% 15%

54%+ 15%

Polymarket
NEW

42-46% 32%

46-50% 25%

50-54% 15%

54%+ 15%

Polymarket
NEW

<42%

$2,399 Vol.

11%

42-46%

$1,531 Vol.

32%

46-50%

$1,845 Vol.

25%

50-54%

$1,912 Vol.

15%

54%+

$2,146 Vol.

15%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$9,786
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by TISZA falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Recent polls from firms like Medián and Nézőpont show TISZA, led by Péter Magyar, clustered at 42-46% support, aligning with the top trader consensus at 32% implied probability, while Fidesz holds steady near 40-44%, keeping the popular vote race neck-and-neck amid Hungary's polarized electorate. Dynamics sustaining tightness include Fidesz's entrenched rural base and media dominance offsetting TISZA's urban momentum from the 2024 European Parliament upset, economic discontent over inflation, and undecided voters at 10-15%. Separation could arise from upcoming candidate announcements, a high-profile debate, EU fund resolutions favoring Orbán, or Magyar securing key endorsements, potentially shifting odds toward 46-50% or higher for TISZA.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

21%
Market icon

Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?

85%
Market icon

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

71%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "42-46%" at 33%, followed by "46-50%" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote" is "42-46%" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "46-50%" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hungary Election: TISZA % of Popular Vote" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.