Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 50-54 million range at 56.5% implied probability for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic box office, reflecting optimism from stellar word-of-mouth and premium large format (PLF) holdover demand after its record-breaking $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026. Exceptional critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (97%) have driven strong midweek performance, pushing the domestic total past $109 million by Thursday, with Friday grosses at $12.9 million signaling a healthier-than-expected 40% drop. Light competition from newcomers like "They Will Kill You" ($5-6 million projected) bolsters legs, though final Sunday tallies will confirm if WOM delivers the upside beyond tracking estimates around $47 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office
50-54m 54%
46-50m 18%
>54m 10.4%
<42m <1%
$18,910 Vol.
$18,910 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
1%
42-46m
1%
46-50m
18%
50-54m
54%
>54m
23%
50-54m 54%
46-50m 18%
>54m 10.4%
<42m <1%
$18,910 Vol.
$18,910 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
$1,422 Vol.
1%
42-46m
$6,260 Vol.
1%
46-50m
$6,288 Vol.
18%
50-54m
$1,772 Vol.
54%
>54m
$3,168 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 50-54 million range at 56.5% implied probability for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic box office, reflecting optimism from stellar word-of-mouth and premium large format (PLF) holdover demand after its record-breaking $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026. Exceptional critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (97%) have driven strong midweek performance, pushing the domestic total past $109 million by Thursday, with Friday grosses at $12.9 million signaling a healthier-than-expected 40% drop. Light competition from newcomers like "They Will Kill You" ($5-6 million projected) bolsters legs, though final Sunday tallies will confirm if WOM delivers the upside beyond tracking estimates around $47 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$18,910End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 50-54 million range at 56.5% implied probability for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic box office, reflecting optimism from stellar word-of-mouth and premium large format (PLF) holdover demand after its record-breaking $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026. Exceptional critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (97%) have driven strong midweek performance, pushing the domestic total past $109 million by Thursday, with Friday grosses at $12.9 million signaling a healthier-than-expected 40% drop. Light competition from newcomers like "They Will Kill You" ($5-6 million projected) bolsters legs, though final Sunday tallies will confirm if WOM delivers the upside beyond tracking estimates around $47 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$18,910End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 50-54 million range at 56.5% implied probability for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic box office, reflecting optimism from stellar word-of-mouth and premium large format (PLF) holdover demand after its record-breaking $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026. Exceptional critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (97%) have driven strong midweek performance, pushing the domestic total past $109 million by Thursday, with Friday grosses at $12.9 million signaling a healthier-than-expected 40% drop. Light competition from newcomers like "They Will Kill You" ($5-6 million projected) bolsters legs, though final Sunday tallies will confirm if WOM delivers the upside beyond tracking estimates around $47 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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